Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NOW MOVING INTO
NW CORNER OF ARK AT PRESENT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
STORMS CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF TULSA AREA AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LESS LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF THESE STORMS
CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS
ACCORDINGLY AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS AS RAIN COOLED AIR LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE MOST
OF THE DAY ALONG WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. A WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP BY MORNING ACTIVITY AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  68  87  73 /  70  60  50  30
FSM   88  69  87  70 /  20  30  40  20
MLC   88  70  89  71 /  10  30  30  10
BVO   84  65  84  69 /  70  60  50  40
FYV   80  64  83  68 /  70  50  50  30
BYV   79  64  84  68 / 100  60  50  30
MKO   89  68  89  69 /  30  40  50  20
MIO   82  63  84  69 / 100  60  50  40
F10   90  68  89  71 /  20  40  40  20
HHW   88  69  89  70 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
850 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
836 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...LATE MORNING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF U.S. 412 AND EAST OF U.S. 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...LATE MORNING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL ALSO
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LEFT BY THE MORNING ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS WITH A LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH OF A
LINE FROM TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE...AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN OTHER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     HAIL             GROVE                   36.59N 94.77W
05/31/2008  E0.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 AM     HAIL             GRAVETTE                36.42N 94.45W
05/31/2008  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

OKZ058-311630-
OTTAWA OK-
1048 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 1048 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF NARCISSA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...
FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW AND
CARDIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3698 9462 3670 9462 3671 9500 3698 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 279DEG 35KT 3687 9504

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