Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 250145
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKC113-117-250155-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-080525T0215Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
845 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PAWNEE AND WESTERN OSAGE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3670 9705 3670 9694 3674 9692 3678 9675
      3640 9670 3633 9699 3635 9704 3651 9704
      3654 9699 3656 9690 3659 9690 3660 9691
      3658 9699 3659 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 235DEG 14KT 3649 9698

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE LEAD SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS NOBLE
COUNTY LOST ITS ORGANIZATION CROSSING
THE GRADIENT OF CAPE BELOW 700 MB.  THE
CELL WENT FROM VALUES OF 110 J/KG TO
70 J/KG.  VALUES DECREASE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS LONG AS THIS
GRADIENT DOES NOT SHIFT...WHICH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THE
STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
MOVING DEEP INTO PAWNEE COUNTY.  THE
LONGER TERM EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
MEAN CELL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...BUT JOGS TO THE EAST
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES DURING PERIODS
OF INTENSIFICATION.

ALL INTERESTS IN PAWNEE COUNTY
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
403 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST OF A BARTLESVILLE TO HENRYETTA LINE.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...CREEK AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR RESIDES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS LED TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH CAPES UP TO 4000.
WITH THIS INSTABILITY...ONLY MARGINAL SHEAR IS NECESSARY FOR
TORNADOES.  TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PARENT STORMS MAY EFFECT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM OUT WEST NEAR THE DRY LINE AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE SMALL...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST NONE THE LESS.

SOMEWHAT GREATER STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKZ054-059-250130-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
755 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 755 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 34
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APPERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...APPERSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

THIS STORM WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES BUT IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1 AM.

LAT...LON 3670 9694 3673 9692 3676 9676 3641 9681
      3635 9700 3653 9702 3656 9690 3659 9690
      3660 9693 3658 9699 3658 9702 3670 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 235DEG 14KT 3641 9716