Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS TURN NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE LATEST DATA IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS HAS PLACED AN ILL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
WEST...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. THIS REGION OF STRONG FORCING WILL
INTERACT WITH PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE TO EXPAND PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY. THE FAVORED REGION OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK MAY PLACE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES CASTS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURGING DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
LARGELY BACKED WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LIMITED WINDOW EXISTS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS BEFORE CELLULAR INTERACTIONS YIELD BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF BOTH THE SHALLOW AND DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR VECTORS WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
POTENTIAL WITH ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON THURSDAY...WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SMALL SCALE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND TRACK INTO...OR JUST NORTH OF...THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE DRAWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PUSHES IT BACK SOUTHWARD
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS YIELD
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRY WEATHER LOOK TO PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  57  75  55 / 100  70  10  30
FSM   77  60  76  56 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   75  58  77  57 /  90  30  10  10
BVO   74  57  73  53 / 100  70  10  40
FYV   74  58  71  51 /  90  80  20  20
BYV   74  58  69  50 /  80  80  20  10
MKO   75  58  74  57 / 100  60  10  20
MIO   75  57  70  52 / 100  80  20  40
F10   74  56  76  57 /  90  50  10  20
HHW   77  61  80  59 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
655 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
LATER TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY WITH A DRY LINE TO ITS SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THE
LOW PRESSURE AND DRY LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE AND JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGLY BACKED AND THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A SQUALL LINE.  IF A SQUALL FORMS...SUPERCELLS MAY
STILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN IT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK.

IN ADDITONAL TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK...THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW OR ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ061-062-071200-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
615 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES

AT 615 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF CLAREMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...TIAWAH...
FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD...CHELSEA...ADAIR AND PENSACOLA.

SMALL HAIL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3655 9533 3652 9531 3652 9508 3652 9501
      3616 9556 3636 9574 3659 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 229DEG 24KT 3632 9564

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
715 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     HAIL             STRANG                  36.41N 95.13W
05/07/2008  E1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

DMJ