Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 23, 2008Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 23, 2008, 7:00 PM CDT for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 41 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 23, 2008, 7:00 PM CDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired: Apr 23, 2008, 7:41 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 23, 7:00 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	Huntsville, AR

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 271 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1961 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 232359
SVRTSA
ARC015-087-240100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0239.080424T0000Z-080424T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUNTSVILLE...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FORUM...
  CLIFTY...MARBLE...RUDD...EUREKA SPRINGS...RULE...BERRYVILLE...
  BEAVER...GREEN FOREST...GRANDVIEW...URBANETTE AND OAK GROVE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3650 9380 3647 9329 3594 9358 3603 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 210DEG 21KT 3607 9370

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 240034
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

ARC015-087-240100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-080424T0100Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
735 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CABANAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CABANAL...
CONNOR...EUREKA SPRINGS...RULE...BERRYVILLE...BEAVER...GREEN
FOREST...GRANDVIEW...OAK HILL...URBANETTE...PLEASANT RIDGE AND OAK
GROVE.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3647 9330 3639 9333 3638 9335 3635 9335
      3634 9336 3631 9336 3629 9340 3617 9346
      3630 9382 3650 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 210DEG 21KT 3627 9355

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 240041
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

ARC015-087-240051-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-080424T0100Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
741 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND CARROLL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3647 9330 3639 9333 3638 9335 3635 9335
      3634 9336 3631 9336 3629 9340 3617 9346
      3630 9382 3650 9380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 210DEG 21KT 3630 9353

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 23, 2:49 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 23, 2:49 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A VERY MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NOTED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SRN MO. THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TO OUR W AND N THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...BUT WE/RE BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
OVER ERN OK AND WRN AR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED. AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE)...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN
OK THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY A
STRENGTHENING 40-50KT SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO NW AR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENT IN BLOWING UP A QPF
BULLSEYE OVER SE OK WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER N ACROSS NE OK. THESE
FEEDBACK SIGNALS...HOWEVER...ARE OFTEN INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF SEEN IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR
MORE MCS/S AND THEY TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW AR WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST (AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE THE
HIGHEST)...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXITING NW AR BY MID-LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY. DROPPED POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE OK/WRN AR WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH THE PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  82  66  75 /  80  30  20  30
FSM   64  81  63  74 /  80  60  10  50
MLC   66  82  66  75 /  90  20  10  40
BVO   63  81  63  73 /  80  30  20  30
FYV   61  77  61  71 /  90  70  10  50
BYV   61  75  62  70 /  90  80  10  50
MKO   63  80  65  74 /  90  50  10  40
MIO   62  80  64  71 /  80  50  20  40
F10   65  81  65  74 /  80  30  10  40
HHW   65  82  65  77 /  90  30  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....18

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 23, 5:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ058-232330-
OTTAWA OK-
543 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA

AT 543 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF PICHER TO OTTAWA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...
QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9474 3700 9463 3698 9460 3678 9460
      3675 9481 3700 9494 3701 9492 3701 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 217DEG 22KT 3708 9486 3686 9475

Local storm report, Apr 23, 5:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 35.95N 94.42W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DMJ

Local storm report, Apr 23, 6:04 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBD

Local storm report, Apr 23, 6:17 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             PRAIRIE GROVE           35.98N 94.32W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DMJ

Local storm report, Apr 23, 6:39 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             S CHECOTAH              35.47N 95.52W
04/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF CHECOTAH

&&

DMJ

Local storm report, Apr 23, 6:49 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
649 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             MC KEY                  35.48N 94.88W
04/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

RBD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 23, 7:46 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison	6 hr
Apr 23, 8:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	61 min
Apr 23, 10:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	37 min
Apr 23, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.