River Flood Warning 77, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 150129
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
829 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ARKANSAS...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN AFFECTING CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN 
  COUNTIES. 
  
ARC033-131-150929-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-080515T1800Z/
/VBUA4.1.ER.080514T2049Z.080515T0600Z.080515T1200Z.NO/
829 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.01 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING
  THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG
  THE SHORELINE FROM THE I-540 BRIDGE EAST TOWARDS LAVACA.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 151327
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
827 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ARKANSAS...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN AFFECTING CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN 
  COUNTIES. 
  
ARC033-131-152127-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-080516T0000Z/
/VBUA4.1.ER.080514T1955Z.080515T0700Z.080515T1800Z.NO/
827 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  800 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.12 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 
  SHORELINE FROM THE I-540 BRIDGE EAST TOWARDS LAVACA.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 151358
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ARKANSAS..
  ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN AFFECTING CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN 
  COUNTIES. 
  
ARC033-131-152158-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-080516T0000Z/
/VBUA4.1.ER.080514T1955Z.080515T0700Z.080515T1800Z.NO/
858 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  200 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.12 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 
  SHORELINE FROM THE I-540 BRIDGE EAST TOWARDS LAVACA.

$$

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 151916
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
216 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ARKANSAS...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN AFFECTING CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN 
  COUNTIES. 
  
ARC033-131-151946-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-080516T0000Z/
/VBUA4.1.ER.080514T1955Z.080515T0700Z.080515T1630Z.NO/
216 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN.
* AT  200 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.89 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN WILL CONTINUE FALLING 
  AND REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THE RIVER STAGE WILL REMAIN
  HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 
  SHORELINE FROM THE I-540 BRIDGE EAST TOWARDS LAVACA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LEADING EDGE ENCOUNTERS DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING POP FORECAST BASED MAINLY
ON RADAR TRENDS BUT KEPT THE 18-00Z GRID AS IS. ALSO LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS DUE TO
PRECIP/CLOUDS. ANOTHER UPDATED ZFP WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  53  68  48 /  60 100  40  10
FSM   71  60  68  49 /  80  90  30  10
MLC   69  54  69  48 /  80  80  20  10
BVO   69  52  68  46 /  50 100  40  10
FYV   68  55  63  43 /  60 100  50  10
BYV   68  54  61  44 /  60 100  60  10
MKO   68  54  65  48 /  70 100  30  10
MIO   70  51  65  47 /  40 100  60  10
F10   68  52  67  49 /  70  90  30  10
HHW   72  59  70  51 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...LATE
        AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT IMPROVING
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER
TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS
EAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.