Freeze Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FORCE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OVER MISSOURI
WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  INITIALLY TONIGHT THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL START OFF WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR
TO COOL QUICKLY.  THE MAXIMUM TEMP FALL WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WEST OF THIS
AXIS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BLOW FROM TIME TO
TIME.  WITH LOCAL OFFICE POLICY SETTING MARCH 21ST
AS THE AVERAGE BEGINNING TO THE GROWING SEASON
IN OUR FORECAST AREA THE COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR MONDAY MORNING REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE
WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  GIVEN IT WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE REST OF OUR COUNTIES.

CONCERNS MONDAY QUICKLY SHIFTS TO FIRE WEATHER.  THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND BECOMING GUSTY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON THE DAY SHIFT WITH
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH POSSIBLY NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE
AREA MONDAY.

BY MID WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH
AND STALL IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  AS MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH ON SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS OR NEAR THE
AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
HEN.

THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK APPEAR TO BE
AT OR BELOW AVERAGE IN STRENGTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  34  63  49 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  33  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   55  32  62  48 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  29  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   50  26  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   49  27  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   53  31  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   51  30  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
F10   53  33  62  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  34  62  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ072.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
459 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS COLDER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES TO THE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COLDER...WITH LOWS BRIEFLY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAY EVEN SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 20S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
60S...AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO AROUND 20 MILES PER
HOUR. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. STRONGER
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
WILDFIRES WHICH COULD SPREAD QUICKLY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.