Flash Flood Watch 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW WILL CONTINUE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND WRN ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEK...GENERALLY WEAK
TO MODERATE IMPULSES TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AS
THE LAST SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED BY THAT TIME.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT THINK THAT MIGHT
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...EVEN
TO THE POINT OF BRINGING DOWN A CLOSED H5 LOW INTO KS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE INTERESTING NEXT WEEKEND...WTIH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

MODELS APPARENTLY BEEN INITIALIZING FROM DIFFERENT MONTHS THESE
LAST FEW DAYS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR MAKING A DECISION. GFS HAS
32 POP FOR TUL TONIGHT...WHILE NAM HAS 71 POP. SIMILAR ISSUES
ABOUND THROUGHT THE NEXT SUNDAY.

ONGOING CONVECTION SEEMS WELL DEPICTED BY NAM...AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION FOR TODAY AND COMPROMISED WITH THE GFS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER POPS THAN GIVEN BY THE MAV MOS. TRIED TO
SHADE THE TEMPS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE PRECIP AND CLOUDS
THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  67  86  67 /  70  40  10   0
FSM   80  65  87  65 /  80  50  20   0
MLC   80  67  88  65 /  80  60  10  10
BVO   80  64  87  62 /  50  20  20   0
FYV   77  63  84  59 /  60  40  20   0
BYV   80  60  85  61 /  50  30  20  10
MKO   78  66  87  65 /  70  40  10   0
MIO   81  64  84  63 /  50  20  20   0
F10   78  66  87  67 /  70  40  10   0
HHW   82  70  86  66 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....02

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