Flash Flood Warning 93, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 160607
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

OKC115-160618-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0093.000000T0000Z-080616T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OTTAWA OK-
108 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OTTAWA COUNTY EXPIRES AT 100 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TULSA.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3667 9462 3667 9479 3668 9480
      3668 9493 3700 9495 3700 9468 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 103DEG 1KT 3683 9482

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MISSOURI PORTION OF THE MCS CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH
WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 75
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN
INITIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT AS COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MAY SEE MCS PLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO THE SOUTH SO WILL TAPER POPS OFF TO THE SOUTH FOR
NOW. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON LOCATION OF FUTURE MCS DEVELOPMENT. IF A POWERFUL MCS
PLOWS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS MAY WELL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS OR
SO. LIKEWISE DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED. DID RAISE POPS A BIT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS MAY BE THE BEST
SHOT AT AN MCS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE STRONGLY OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY FINALLY CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD BACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  66  83 /  80  50  30  50
FSM   68  88  66  85 /  70  40  40  50
MLC   69  89  68  84 /  40  30  40  40
BVO   66  84  63  83 /  90  50  30  50
FYV   64  82  60  80 /  80  50  40  40
BYV   63  80  60  79 /  80  50  40  20
MKO   68  87  66  82 /  70  40  30  50
MIO   64  82  61  81 /  90  50  20  30
F10   68  88  67  82 /  60  40  40  50
HHW   71  91  69  86 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             2 SW PEORIA             36.89N 94.70W
06/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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