Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Warnings in 2008

Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 27, 2008Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood warning at May 27, 2008, 2:12 AM CDT for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2008, 2:12 AM CDT (07:12 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2008, 8:15 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 917 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 601 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 502 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.1
Supercell composite: 13.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KTSA 270713
FFWTSA
OKC113-117-271315-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.W.0079.080527T0712Z-080527T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
212 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN 5 MILES WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING      
  NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN    
  HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 815 AM 
  CDT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE...SKEDEE AND RALSTON.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW 
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER 
OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

LAT...LON 3654 9699 3654 9696 3656 9691 3655 9657
      3617 9682 3625 9683 3625 9691 3625 9692
      3633 9692 3633 9699 3635 9703 3651 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 238DEG 20KT 3636 9687

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 271307
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
808 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKC113-117-271318-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-080527T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
808 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PAWNEE AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 815 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TULSA.

LAT...LON 3654 9699 3654 9696 3656 9691 3655 9657
      3617 9682 3625 9683 3625 9691 3625 9692
      3633 9692 3633 9699 3635 9703 3651 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 238DEG 20KT 3739 9476

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 26, 8:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 26, 8:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE UP FOR THAT SOME OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BELIEVE THAT WITH TIME THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND THREAT
WILL INCREASE. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL LIKELY UPDATE WITH TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....15

Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 5:03 PM CDT, 9 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CRIS-CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY AREA.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT IS A
MUCH WEAKER THREAT COMPARED TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WEAKER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 12:46 AM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ056>058-060>063-067-068-270700-
CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS
OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN WAGONER...ROGERS...DELAWARE...CRAIG...OTTAWA...
     NOWATA...TULSA AND MAYES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

AT 1246 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 4 MILES EAST OF
TALALA TO TULSA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...JAY...OAKS...LEACH...TWIN
OAKS...KANSAS...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...NOWATA...
DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...CLAREMORE...INOLA...
CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD...
TALALA...CHELSEA...PEGGS...SCRAPER...OWASSO...MIAMI...COMMERCE...
AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...
CARDIN...PICHER...VINITA...KETCHUM...BIG CABIN...WHITE OAK...
CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA...
WELCH...PRYOR...MAZIE...MURPHY...CHOUTEAU...LOCUST GROVE...ROSE...
SALINA...SPAVINAW...STRANG...ADAIR...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3660 9461 3603 9487 3610 9591
      3653 9578 3700 9568 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 270DEG 30KT 3697 9540 3652 9562
          3612 9579

Special weather statement, May 27, 1:27 AM CDT, 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

OKZ060-064-270730-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
127 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK AND TULSA

AT 127 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTH OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...BIXBY...
JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND
SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3608 9630 3609 9576 3591 9581 3591 9582
      3586 9583 3586 9618 3586 9619 3585 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 275DEG 20KT 3601 9621

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 7:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	60 min
May 26, 7:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Osage	56 min
May 26, 8:17 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	4 days
May 26, 8:17 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	14 hr
May 26, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	61 min
May 26, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	61 min
May 26, 10:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	6 hr
May 26, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	54 min
May 26, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	77 min
May 26, 11:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	61 min
May 27, 12:04 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington	56 min
May 27, 12:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers	74 min
May 27, 12:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	6 hr
May 27, 12:53 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington	18 days
May 27, 1:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	63 min
May 27, 1:45 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Washington	19 days
May 27, 1:49 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Tulsa, Wagoner	20 days
May 27, 3:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	65 min
May 27, 4:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	67 min
May 27, 4:18 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	6 hr
May 27, 4:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	76 min
May 27, 6:10 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	20 days
May 27, 6:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore, Pushmataha, Sequoyah	77 min
May 27, 8:21 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, LeFlore, Osage, Pawnee, Sequoyah, Tulsa and 1 more	20 days
May 27, 8:29 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw, Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	22 days
May 27, 8:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	2 hr
May 27, 9:01 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	119 min
May 27, 9:24 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Creek	13 hr
May 27, 9:26 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee	11 hr
May 27, 9:55 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2008 Every flash flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.