Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS43 KTOP 310508
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

.SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO
CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SOME DRIFTING. 

KSZ054-311130-
/O.EXT.KTOP.WS.W.0001.080131T0900Z-080201T0000Z/
LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...EMPORIA
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH AROUND SIX INCHES
ACCUMULATING. NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE AFFECTED
AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.


$$

KSZ040-055-056-058-059-311130-
/O.EXT.KTOP.WS.W.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...OTTAWA
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND DAWN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH FOUR TO SIX
INCHES ACCUMULATING. NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE AFFECTED
AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.


$$

KSZ035>037-311130-
/O.EXT.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.080131T0900Z-080201T0000Z/
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES
TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME 
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND
TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

$$

KSZ038-039-311130-
/O.EXT.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TOPEKA
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL BY DAWN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES
TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND
TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

$$

KSZ011-012-022>024-026-311130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN
1108 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY...

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
6 PM CST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN BY DAWN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES
TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND
TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KTOP 311000
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OK
AND TX. AS IT DOES...A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM
EMPORIA TO TOPEKA AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE.

KSZ054-311800-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080201T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.SN.Y.0002.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...EMPORIA
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS FORM THE STORM DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS
EARLIER FORECASTS HAD. ADDITIONALLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO THE SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNSET TODAY. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A FEW MILES.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE AREA WILL BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

$$

KSZ040-055-056-058-059-311800-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WS.W.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.SN.Y.0002.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...OTTAWA
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS FORM THE STORM DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS
EARLIER FORECASTS HAD. ADDITIONALLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO THE SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SUNSET TODAY. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A FEW MILES.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE AREA WILL BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

$$

KSZ026-038-039-311800-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.SN.Y.0002.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TOPEKA
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THE MORNING. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS
EARLIER FORECAST HAD. THEREFORE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNSET TODAY. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
COULD STILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED
TO A FEW MILES.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE AREA WILL BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

$$

KSZ011-012-022>024-311100-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.080131T1200Z-080201T0000Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER
FORECASTS HAD. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. SNOW IS
STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY
AROUND AN INCH.

MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND
TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL.

$$

KSZ035>037-311800-
/O.CON.KTOP.SB.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080201T0000Z/
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY
400 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON...

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY NORTH
WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND
CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...
AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

$$

WOLTERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 AM CST WED JAN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE SFC PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO TURN MORE FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WITH WEAK RIDGING HANGING ON ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS. WITH CALM
WINDS WITHING THIS RIDGE...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE NAM TENDS TO HOLD
ONTO THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LOW LEVELS EVENTUALLY SATURATING. PREFERRED THE GFS
BECAUSE THE 00Z NAM WAS ORIENTING AN INVERTED 850MB TROUGH MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THEREFORE HAD
850 WINDS BACKING MUCH SOONER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...THE GFS 850 PATTERN SEEMED TO MAKE BETTER SINCE AND HENCE
HANGS ONTO THE WARM CONVEYOR A LITTLE LONGER ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. INTERESTING THAT WHILE THE 06Z
NAM STILL FOCUSES THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS...IT DOES BRING
SNOW FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KS.

AS ALLUDED TO...THE MODELS INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A BAND OF SNOW
SETTING UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND A WEAK TROWAL SIGNATURE.  THINK THE GFS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY TO FAR NORTHWEST WITH ITS MAIN AXIS OF SNOW BASED ON THE
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND TRACK OF THE 850 LOW. THEREFORE KEPT THE
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVE CLOSING OFF...THINK THAT SNOW COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. GARCIA METHOD WOULD SUGGEST 5 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THINK THAT THERE COULD BE 5 TO 7 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TURNPIKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH POSSIBLY AN INCH OR LESS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE TURNPIKE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS 6 INCHES OR GREATER. WILL ALSO
ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS DUE TO CAA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY DOWN OVER
EAST CENTRAL KS EXPECTING FRESH SNOW COVER TO COUNTER ACT INCREASING
WAA.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY.

&&

WOLTERS

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU 00Z AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. AS SFC LO OVR THE
WRN HI PLAINS DEEPENS TODAY...LO LVL SRLY FLOW WL INCREASE THRU THE
AFTN. INVERTED TROF WL DVLP THIS EVNG AND WL LIKELY PUSH THRU KMHK
BY 06Z AND THEN THRU KTOP/KFOE BY THE 09Z TIME FRAME. AS WRN US TROF
NEARS THE AREA TONIGHT...LIFT WL INCREASE LEADING TO PRECIP DVLPMNT
BY 12Z AT KTOP/KFOE. PRECIP IS LIKELY TO BE ALL SN WITH CEILINGS AND
VISBY DROPPING INTO THE MVF/IFR RANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

BOUSTEAD

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM THU FOR
KSZ040-054>056-058-059

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM THU
FOR KSZ035>039

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM THU FOR
KSZ011-012-022>024-026

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
501 AM CST WED JAN 30 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
501 AM CST WED JAN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
ON GOING BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS WATCH...A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER IN THESE AREAS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH COULD CAUSE
DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERIODS WHEN VISIBILITIES COULD BE A QUARTER
OF A MILE. THE SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER BY THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS