Wind Advisory 6, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 250005
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

.WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
DECREASE AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. SINCE NO ASOS SITES
ARE AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW...HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

KSZ034-035-037-054-250115-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080325T0000Z/
OTTAWA-DICKINSON-MORRIS-LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...EMPORIA
705 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THEREFORE THE
WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 TO
25 MPH OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

$$

WOLTERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
232 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A
LOOK AT THE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE 24/18Z RUC BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS INTO THE WIND ADVISORY
RANGE IS QUITE PROBABLE ACROSS THE FLATTER TERRAIN AREAS. MIXED
LAYER WINDS REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL
BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY.

KRC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS/

SYNOPSIS...
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOWS
INFLUENCING NORTH AMERICA. THE FIRST IS A POLAR VORTEX EAST OF
HUDSON BAY AND THE SECOND IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN HAS BEEN TO ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE FAST FLOW BENEATH THESE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE REMAINED NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST OF 5 DAY AVERAGED 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THIS PATTERN
BREAKING DOWN SO THAT BY DAY 5 AN UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX EXISTS
OVER NORTHERN CANADA WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48
STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

KRC

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

THE 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THAT
SAID...GFS/NAM STALL THE FRONT OVER KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA. DPROG/DT HAS SHOWN A TREND OF THE
FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  AS A
RESULT...THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION SEEMS MOST APPROPRIATE.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY
UP TO 500 J/KG TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE SAME AREA. THINK THIS IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...SHEAR/CAPE PARAMETERS INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. SHOULD THE TREND OF THE FRONT STALLING
FURTHER NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS COULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THEN EXITS
QUICKLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
/ELEVATED CONVECTION/ SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS RATHER LOW.

KRC

AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
IN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS. STEEPENING LEE TROF OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL YIELD
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 28-35KT THIS PM. LOW- LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS PROG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUES AM...WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO A N-NERLY COMPONENT BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

JMC

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ037-KSZ054.

&&

KRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
502 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
IN NORTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL...AND MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.