Wind Advisory 19, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 062259
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
459 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008


KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-070000-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-081106T2300Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA
459 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...THUS THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE SD/NEB STATE
LINE WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH KS. A SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED
OVER SOUTHER SD SEVERAL MBS LOWER THAN THE MODELS HAVE AT 09Z AND A
STRONG 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS ADVECTING ACROSS WESTERN NEB.

THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER EXITING TO THE
EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THOUGH WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA NOW...THE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. FOCUS THAN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS AS ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. INITIALLY WAS NOT THAT CONCERNED SINCE
MODEL PROGS SHOW THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SFC LOW...THEY ARE
LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ADDITIONALLY
CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK AGAINST MIXING...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SHOULD
ALLOW MOMENTUM OF THE 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSFER TO THE
SFC IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE CLOSED LOW BEGGING TO FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIP WILL ONLY BE TRACE
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
EXPECT THERE TO BE A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPING HIGHS REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KS. CLOUDY SKIES AND SHALLOWER MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. CLOUD COVER AND A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS FINALLY SHOW THE GRADIENT
RELAXING WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLOSED
LOW FINALLY EXITING TEMPS COULD FALL MORE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEN THE SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR.

LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
UNCHANGED. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. MAIN QUESTION IS
TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SFC FRONT WILL COME ACROSS
THE PLAINS. GFS ENSEMBLE FOCUSES GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
MONDAY WHICH THE FORECAST REFLECTS.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KMHK AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
KTOP AND KFOE BY 07Z SO STARTED THE WINDS FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
WAVE MOVES THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND NOT EXPECTING VSBYS
LOWER THAN MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ON THURSDAY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SITES BUT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST IN THE 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THEN
DECREASE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY 8AM TO 5PM TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COUNCIL GROVE TO TOPEKA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-061945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1102 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH ARE LIKELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.