Wind Advisory 11, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 012028
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ026-039-040-054>056-058-059-012130-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-080502T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
328 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THERE CURRENT LEVELS AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

$$

KSZ011-012-022>024-036>038-012130-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-080501T2000Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY
328 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

WOLTERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WAS RETURNING THIS MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUD LOOP
SHOWS STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL JET IS VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
STRATUS ADVECTING AND DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER IDAHO WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BASE ACROSS UTAH AT 08Z.

MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT
ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK THIS MORNING THAT
SHOULD BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST AREA LOOKS TO BE I-35 SOUTH GIVEN SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS THIS MORNING.

THE DRY LINE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 135/US 81 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. EML STRONG THIS MORNING THEN WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING ERODES THE CAP. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
POINT TOWARD SUPERCELL STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRY
LINE THEN TRANSITIONING INTO LINEAR STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AS
THE FRONT SURGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD AS WILL DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER
21Z OR 23Z TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 09Z FRIDAY.

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COOL AROUND 15 TO
20 DEGREES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WILL
SEE A WARMUP ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RIDGING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND STRENGTHENING EML HAS HELP TO
LIMIT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP BELOW CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MODIFIED
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR
NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA IT WILL SURGE THIS MORNING AND WHICH SIDE OF
3KFT THE BASES WILL BE. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH 3000-3500
SCT-BKN INTO THE MID MORNING...WITH MORE THINNING OF THE DECK ON
THROUGH 18Z. STRONG WINDS THROUGH 850MB THIS MORNING WILL VEER AND
SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE AFTER 12Z...BUT WILL KEEP LLWS GOING UNTIL
AROUND THAT TIME FOR NOW IN THE KTOP/KFOE SITES BUT KEEP GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TO 25-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE WITH PROB30
INTRODUCED IN KMHK...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD TO KFOE/KTOP BY 06Z AS
WELL AS SFC WINDS GRADUALLY VEER.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
504 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.