Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 241548
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1047 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSC111-241556-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080524T1600Z/
LYON-
1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 142 AND 153.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3860 9594 3870 9594 3874 9593 3880 9585
      3867 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 234DEG 28KT 3867 9587

$$

KSC139-241600-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080524T1600Z/
OSAGE-
1047 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 1044 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSAGE CITY...OR 24
MILES NORTHEAST OF EMPORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGAME.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3860 9594 3870 9594 3874 9593 3880 9585
      3867 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 234DEG 28KT 3868 9586

$$

HARDING

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 241600
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSC139-241610-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080524T1600Z/
OSAGE-
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 1100 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3860 9594 3870 9594 3874 9593 3880 9585
      3867 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 234DEG 28KT 3868 9585

$$

HARDING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WITH ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIMIT FORECAST DISCUSSION TO
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ONLY...

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST OF EASTERN KS WILL AFFECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE ABILITY OF THE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT TO RECOVER DEEP LOW LVL
MOISTURE. 00Z H850 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN TX. 09Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED MOISTURE POOLED UP SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK WITH TDS IN THE LOWER 70S DEG F. WITH
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SO CAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY LOW LVL
FLOW TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP BEHIND STABLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 06Z NAM BROUGHT WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY
18Z...HOWEVER 06Z NAM ALSO HAS TD VALUES 10+ DEG F TOO HIGH IN
SOUTHEASTERN KS DUE TO NOT INITIALIZING WITH STABLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN OK. THE PRESENCE OF
THIS STABLE AIR SHOULD SERVE TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY HOLDING IN OVER THE
CWA LONG ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SO CAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX EAST INTO CENTRAL KS AROUND 21Z. IF
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT GOOD LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT...SO PRESENCE OF DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD (2500 J/KG) MLCAPE VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. IF THE WARM
FRONT IS STILL IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH CENTRAL KS WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...LOW LVL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD PROVIDE AN
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON IS THE PROBABILITY OF INITIATION. THE DRYLINE IS
ONLY FORECAST TO MIX AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL KS...AND IF THE WARM
FRONT DOES MANAGE TO PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA JUST AFTER 18Z...THERE
WILL BE NO OBVIOUS SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE WELL
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH INITIAL JET STREAK DYNAMICS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ASCENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE JET STREAK DYNAMICS SET UP OVER
CENTRAL KS TO ENHANCE ASCENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LOW LVL MOISTURE EXIST THAT WOULD INDICATE A SEVERE WX MODE OF
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF INITIATION WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE ANALYZED
AFTER CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

COMMENTS ON REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE...BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO ALIGN EAST/WEST NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER FOR REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH SVR
WX CHANCES LARGELY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG
SYNOPTIC SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WX DO NOT EXIST YET. MODELS
HINTING AT PASSAGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE A SVR WX THREAT TO THE CWA. WITH THE
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NEAR THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT NO
HEADLINES YET AS THE OSCILLATING REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOCUS HAS BEEN ON VERY NEAR TERM WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS/CIGS AND VISBYS.  EXPECT SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO FOE AND TOP FOR NEXT FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AND LIFT ABOVE 3KFT BY MID
MORNING.

KC

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
547 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
547 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...HOWEVER TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY PRODUCING FLOODING. OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HERINGTON               38.67N 96.94W
05/24/2008                   DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN, SHINGLES OFF ROOFS IN TOWN.

&&

HARDING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
920 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILSEY                  38.64N 96.68W
05/24/2008                   MORRIS             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

HARDING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
933 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 AM     HAIL             HARVEYVILLE             38.79N 95.96W
05/24/2008  E1.25 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

HARDING

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
950 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSZ055-058-241515-
COFFEY-OSAGE-
950 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN COFFEY INTO SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF INCH HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE WAVERLY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S JAMESTOWN           39.51N 97.86W
05/24/2008                   CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TO 4 INCH LIVE BRANCHES BREAKING IN WIND. LASTING
            SEVERAL MINUTES.

0111 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S BELLEVILLE          39.74N 97.63W
05/24/2008                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHED BLOWN OVER, BUT INTACT.

0122 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE BELLEVILLE         39.89N 97.55W
05/24/2008                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN FELL ONTO A TRACTOR.

0122 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.59W
05/24/2008                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN WITH ROOF PARTIALLY OFF HOUSE ON
            NICKEL ROAD. ALSO CARPORT WAS DESTROYED.

0209 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HERINGTON               38.67N 96.94W
05/24/2008                   DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN, SHINGLES OFF ROOFS IN TOWN.

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILSEY                  38.64N 96.68W
05/24/2008                   MORRIS             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN.

0221 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILSEY                  38.64N 96.68W
05/24/2008                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS POWER IS OUT AND MANY TREE LIMBS
            DOWN.

0303 AM     HAIL             HARVEYVILLE             38.79N 95.96W
05/24/2008  E1.25 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0317 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEBO              38.42N 95.87W
05/24/2008                   COFFEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SILOS DAMAGED NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND EMMER ROAD.

0326 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BURLINGTON          38.27N 95.74W
05/24/2008                   COFFEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORAGE UNIT DESTROYED, POWER LINES SNAPPED. NEAR NEW
            STRAWN.

&&

HARDING

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSZ054-055-241545-
LYON-OSAGE-
1011 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THROUGH 1045 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LYON AND WEST CENTRAL OSAGE
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEAST LYON AND WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED