Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 220459
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

KSC087-220530-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080422T0530Z/
JEFFERSON-
1158 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 1154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OSKALOOSA...OR 13 MILES WEST OF TONGANOXIE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCLOUTH AND WINCHESTER.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3931 9516 3929 9517 3905 9517 3905 9529
      3908 9533 3915 9538 3924 9535 3933 9530
      3936 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 236DEG 19KT 3918 9529

$$

BLAIR

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 220506
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSC087-220516-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080422T0530Z/
JEFFERSON-
1206 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 1206 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3931 9516 3929 9517 3905 9517 3905 9529
      3908 9533 3915 9538 3924 9535 3933 9530
      3936 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 250DEG 24KT 3918 9515

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
933 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

.UPDATE...

STRONG CAP CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER CONVECTIVE SURFACE-
BASED DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM ST JOSEPHS TO NEAR TOPEKA TO NEAR EMPORIA. FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO
IS BEGINNING TO ENTER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING TO GENERATE CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM JUST BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER MLCIN. STILL 1000 J/KG MUCAPE PLUS EXISTS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

BLAIR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOWING WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT
THE AREA NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NM. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CWA FROM JUST WEST OF HIAWATHA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
MHK TO THE HERINGTON AREA. THIS FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN ON THE
SOUTHERN END UP TO NEAR MHK...BUT STILL MAKING BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. MOISTURE FIELD REMAINS STRONGLY
CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON TO ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CHANCES
REMAINS THAT IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING
TO THE SOUTH...IT MAY SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CAPPING DECREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
IN NM. OTHER SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AS 850 FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EXPECTED MID LEVEL COOLING AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CWA. EITHER
WAY...IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY BEYOND
MIDNIGHT WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...HAVE EDGED
LOWS UP A BIT...BUT STILL IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM GUIDANCE ALL AREAS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW POPS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP
HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE LOW 70S NORTH TO MID 70S EAST CENTRAL.

63

TUESDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ON WEDNESDAY DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL SEE SOME
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF MUCH WILL
GET GOING IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH AN INCREASE OF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
EJECTION OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FIRST IS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENT ECMWF AGAIN
TODAY AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT OUT OF PHASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND HAVE
INSERTED LOW POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. FOR THE MOST PART THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

53

AVIATION...

VFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH BASES 4-5KFT.
COLD FRONT VERY CLOSE TO KMHK SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY WITH THE
FRONT THEN MOVING THROUGH KTOP/KFOE AROUND 00Z. WIND WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST/THEN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY IN THE 8-12KT
RANGE. KEPT A THUNDER CHANCE VICINITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A TEMPS OR
PROB GROUP. MAY SEE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS ARE AOB 3KFT 03Z-08Z
TIMEFRAME...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AROUND
3500 FEET THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BUT MAY DECREASE THROUGH 18Z. 63

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-221015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
505 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER
SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A SENECA TO MANHATTAN TO ABILENE LINE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

CAVANAUGH

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1131 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

KSZ026-220500-
JEFFERSON-
1131 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PERRY
LAKE...WILLIAMSTOWN...OZAWKIE...OSKALOOSA...WINCHESTER AND MCLOUTH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

BLAIR