Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING/TONIGHT...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF ICT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HYS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE ENHANCED
ASCENT WAS PRESENT. THESE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESS. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT 30-40 KTS. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS QUICKLY ERODING AND THEREFORE EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF
THESE MAY BE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. FOR THIS
REASON...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEST
LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM EXISTS...THE SPEEDS ARE
RATHER ANEMIC WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW SRH VALUES. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS FAIRLY HIGH...LONG-LIVED ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE
REQUIRED TO GENERATE LONG RESIDENCE TIMES NEEDED FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION. PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.75 OWING TO SOME STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS TRAIN OVER SAME AREAS FOR A MODEST DURATION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO WANE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO TRENDED CLOSER TO MEAN SOLUTION IN SREF
GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SETUP IS
HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON EVOLUTION OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WHICH IS UNRESOLVABLE ATTM...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BLAIR

MON/TUES...NAM GENERATES MCS AND DROPS IT INTO NE KS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE GFS DEVELOPS THE COMPLEX IN IOWA.
THINK GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW BETTER TO OUR
NORTH...AND SHORTWAVES IN THAT FLOW WOULD DRAW BETTER 850MB FLOW
AND CONVERGENCE NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP SLT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...REMNANTS
OF DOLLY LIKELY TO BECOME A PLAYER...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS VERY
DIFFERENT. NAM BRINGS A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE GFS KEEPS SMALLER CIRCULATION IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL GO WITH SLT CHANCE POPS FOR
EITHER SCENARIO ATTM.

WED-SAT...ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING RIDGE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW VARY AND ARE MORE MESOSCALE IN NATURE AND TO BE
CONSIDERED AS EVENTS DRAW CLOSER. HAVE GONE WITH SLT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND. AS SYSTEMS SLIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW COULD SEE SLIGHT COOLING IN THE TEMPS AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS AS WELL. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

FROM 18Z TAF UPDATE...PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS FULLY MIXED OUT AND
DISSIPATED. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE
...FEW-BKN MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ABOVE THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO PERSIST AND SLOWLY RISE AS DEEPER MIXING
COMMENCES...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW 3 KFT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE AND NEAR TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
POSSIBLE TAF AMENDMENTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271845-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

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