Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
556 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPTIC FRONT STILL ANALYZED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEB. COVERAGE STILL A LITTLE SPOTTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CU BETWEEN BIE AND FNB. CONVECTION
AROUND EMP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH RUC SOUNDINGS AND LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING LITTLE CIN ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT FOR TIMING OF POSSIBLE
TS IN THE TERMINALS. THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT WEST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN TS INCREASES. WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPO TS SIMPLY TO KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../324 PM CDT/
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
NORTHEAST KANSAS CURRENTLY AND WEAKENING. THIS BAND OF MID LEVEL
SHOWERS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM CLOUD TOPS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE BEHIND THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS...SO MORE SUNSHINE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA SHOULD
HELP ERODE THE CAP IN THIS AREA. 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA SHOWED A
CAP REMAINING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CAP HOLDING OVER
NORTHEAST KS THRU 22Z. MCV MOVING THRU EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS CAUSED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE FRONT
SEEMS TO BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...AS IT REMAINS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH
THIS EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFTED FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET
UP. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

BASED THURSDAY NIGHT FCST MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SOLN AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS PROJECTION OF
AN MCS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IN THE CWA. ALSO...PREFER THE MORE
SOUTHERLY POSITION OF THE FRONT INTO OK THAN THE GFS SHOWS. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO KEEP THE HIGHER CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
ALSO...TRIMMED SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I
70....THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
FURTHER AND WARMING ALOFT SPREADS EASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALSO...RAISED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUS FCST.

MODELS KEEPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH FCST PROFILES SHOWING A GOOD CAP IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED WITH THE
ECMWF AND WENT WITH A DRY WEEKEND FOR NOW UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
GENERALLY NORTH OF I 35...BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT REAMPLIFIES THROUGH
MID WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
348 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH 10 PM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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