Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 110014
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC085-087-110024-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080411T0030Z/
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
714 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 714 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

ANOTHER WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3942 9556 3942 9535 3941 9535 3926 9564
      3936 9574 3950 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 228DEG 38KT 3942 9553

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
409 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT FORECAST TIME WAS AROUND KCNK WITH
MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHWEST IA.  PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE CWA BRINGING BEST QUALITY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO MO.
GREATEST ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS OVER NORTHWESTERN MO WITH A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...BREAKS IN THE STRATUS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE EROSION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH WAS ALLOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE 23 TO 00Z TIMEFRAME AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG TRUE COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALOFT SET UP AT LEAST SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ROTATE NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AFTER SUNSET AS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING OTHER THAN
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LACKING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH BEFORE SUNSET IN THE WATCH AREA TO PRODUCE
SOME ONE INCH HAIL OR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  AFTER SUNSET WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...AND WOULD EXPECT TOP
CWA COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH WELL BEFORE THE EXP TIME
OF 9 PM.

OTHER CONCERNS TONIGHT WERE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CLIMBING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.  AT THIS TIME WITH THE BENEFIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING SITES IN EAST CENTRAL KS ARE NOT REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...SO DO NOT EXPECT AFTER SUNSET WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF
THERMAL MIXING SITES WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 22Z.  SAME CONCERNS WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...AND ONCE AGAIN
WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
CLIMB ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME.  IF PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TOMORROW...AND SUBSIDENCE IS GREAT
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME SITES IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY DECISION FOR
TOMORROW UP TO THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE FOR LATEST ANALYSIS.

LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY..AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CWA LATE EVENING...AND IS CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
CAA THEN REALLY KICKS IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 36F. NOT EXPECTING
A HARD FREEZE CONSIDERING OVERNIGHT MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...BUT
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH NEARLY
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

SAT...ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW ON SATURDAY...AND REINFORCES BOTH MORE COLD ADVECTION AND
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND LIFT
SEEM TO CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT TOO
LATE FOR THE SUN TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

SUN/MON...500 MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY DUE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW AND AHEAD OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE. THIS KEEPS US
AGAIN IN COOLER FLOW BUT WARMER TEMPS OF +6C AT 850MB CREEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID 50S BY
LATE DAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO HAVE INFLUENCE ON ITS EASTERN SIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL RAISE A FEW MORE DEGREES NEAR 60 WITH SUN AND SLOW
WARMING TREND.

TUES-THURS...FLATTENING RIDGE BRINGS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND A RETURN TO THE LEE TROF AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATEST EC
AND GFS HAVE NEXT UPPER LOW POISED OFF THE WEST COAST PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. END
RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES FINALLY NEAR 70 FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE OVER TOP OR
FOE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION DID NOT INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS AND SIDED WITH
VCTS WORDING AT THIS TIME.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND SLOWLY VEER
AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES IN
THE 04 TO 05Z TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING AN MVFR DECK BACK
THROUGH TAF SITES.  AT THIS TIME CIGS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND THE 2 KFT
LEVEL...SO HAVE CIGS REMAINING AT THIS LEVEL FROM 04-05Z ON AT THIS
TIME.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS MAY VEER FURTHER
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT DID NOT ADD A CHANGE GROUP AT
THIS TIME AS CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY
FOR KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

67/CAVANAUGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112315-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
603 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET...WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SENECA TO
EMPORIA LINE. WINDS OF 60 MPH OR MORE AND HAIL AROUND AN INCH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A SENECA TO EMPORIA LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             COUNCIL GROVE           38.66N 96.49W
04/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            AT 93RD AND WANAMAKER.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MAPLE HILL        39.04N 96.01W
04/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             ROSSVILLE               39.14N 95.95W
04/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND 2 INCHES DEEP IN ROSSVILLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N BURLINGTON          38.30N 95.74W
04/10/2008  M63 MPH          COFFEY             KS   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
700 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
04/10/2008                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF CATTLE SHED. AT LEAST PART OF COMMERCIAL
            SIGN BLOWN DOWN. TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&