Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRONT HAS STALLED AND BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS PER SFC OBS THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR DDC AND
TOP...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU ACROSS SW/SCTRL KS ATTM.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SHOWN BY MODEL DATA TO BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIFICULT TO PLACE LOCATION AT THIS
TIME...WITH GFS SHIFTING PRECIP FARTHER NE THAN THE NAM. GIVEN
CURRENT ANALYSIS AND PERFORMANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...THINK
NAM IS A LITTLE MORE INLINE AND HAVE PAINTED GRIDS TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. THINK BOUNDARY WILL SHARPEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SW/SC KS. IMPULSE COMING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ATTM MAY AIDE IN EVENING INITIATION AS IT RIDES OVER THE
BOUNDARY. MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...AND IS EVIDENCED ON
305/310 ISENTROPIC CHARTS THAT KEEP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
NE OF THE BOUNDARY AND AWAY FROM BETER LIFT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND WEST ZONES LIKELY RIDES ON CONVECTION THAT
INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT IN SC NEBRASKA AND MOVES SE...AND HAVE
CARRIED POPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OUT WEST FOR THIS. WAS A BIT
MORE BROADBRUSH WITH AFTERNOON POPS AND BROUGHT SLT CHANCES FARTHER
EAST MAINLY FOR UNCERTAINTY...AS MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT REMAINS AFTER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ENSUES. DID MIX OUT TO 850 AND GET HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. -67

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODEST
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AFTERNOON SFC
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE FEATURES SHOULD LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-BEYOND...AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY PERSISTS NEAR/OVER THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN PART TO
H85 WAA AND BEGINS TO MIX OUT AND BECOME ILL DEFINED. WITH THE
DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN INTO THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND OF AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES AOA CLIMATOLOGY LEVELS. SEVERAL
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LACK OF
A STRONG EML...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA TUE/WED. WITH THE EXISTING UPPER AIR PATTERN...WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RELY ON BOUNDARIES AND/OR COLD POOLS TO MANAGE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE
SINGLE/MULTI-CELL (PULSE-LIKE) CONVECTION WITH SHORTER LIFE
SPANS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW SPEEDS AND SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON POPS
THIS WEEKEND AS PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM. LONG
STORY SHORT...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. -BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY A WIND AND CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THE AVIATION SIDE. WINDS
AT TOP AND FOE ARE VARIABLE ACROSS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT THROUGH EAST THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NOON HOUR ON
MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CBS AROUND TOP AND FOE...WITH
VCTS NEAR MHK. EXPECT MAIN TAF SITE TO WATCH IS MHK WHICH IS
CLOSER TO INITIATION POINTS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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