Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS ISSUED BY PLEASANT HILL MO
410 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. INITIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY FROM AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NEAR TOPEKA...AND JUST NORTH OF WICHITA.
MOISTURE HAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THIS FRONT
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS. TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE LLJ IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SO MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THIS FRONT CAN SETTLE THIS EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE...BUT IF THE LLJ IS
STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED OR THE FRONT DOES NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR TO
THE SOUTH...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE THE TOPEKA AREA.

WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION TO BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER RESIDUAL
RUN OFF MAY CAUSE FLOODING CONDITIONS TO EXIST THROUGH MIDDAY...SO
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH 18Z.

AFTER THAT...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DRIVEN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THIS SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. INCREASING MOISTURE
RETURN ON SUNDAY MAY SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AS
WEAK UPPER WAVES BREAK OVER SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE.  TIMING A BIT OF
AN ISSUE...AS TIMING OF ANY WAVE THROUGH THIS RIDGE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. WILL TARGET SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIME TIME...AS A SURFACE
FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BE DROPPING INTO EASTERN KANSAS. IF THIS
FRONT IS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...RAIN CHANCE ON MONDAY
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED...SO SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED FOR FUTURE
FORECASTS.

BY TUESDAY...AS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IN WESTERN KANSAS MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK...WHICH MAY
NUDGE CLOSER TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.  FOR NOW WILL
JUST PUT SLIGHT CHANCES IN WESTERN AREAS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...
/326 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008/
OVC/BKN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH 4,000 TO 6,000 FT CEILINGS...LOWER NEAR
CONVECTION. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES WITH
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REFER TO
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM
 THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY FOR
 KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM HIAWATHA TO MINNEAPOLIS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 2 AM. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING WHEN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF AND WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BOUSTEAD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S TOPEKA              38.99N 95.68W
06/12/2008  M77 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            FORBES FIELD ASOS

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S TOPEKA              38.99N 95.68W
06/12/2008  M0.00 MPH        SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            PREVIOUS REPORT OF 77MPH FROM FORBES FIELD WAS INCORRECT.
            THE AUTOMATED REPORT WAS FALSE.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
718 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
06/12/2008                   SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AREA OF 21ST AND RANDOLPH BEING EVACUATED DUE TO THE
            SHUNGANUNGA CREEK BEING OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

BN