Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
20Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN MT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH UT AND CO. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED INTO THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT.

MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER FRONT LAYS OVER AND PRECIP TRAINS OVER
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
UNSTABLE AND CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER IT IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 16 KFT AND IT WILL TAKE A BIG STORM FOR LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR.
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING DAMAGING WINDS IF
STORMS START TO COLLAPSE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS INSIST ON
DUMPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
PRESSURE TENDENCIES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAVE STARTED TO
SHOW SOME FALLS WHICH IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FRONT STALLING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PWS
AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATES A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND SOME
EARLY REPORTS INDICATE 4 TO 5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR EAST CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST KS. DID TRIM A FEW COUNTIES
FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATCH WITH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY. IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-70. IF THIS RAINFALL IS
REALIZED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH MANY OF THE
AREA RIVERS GOING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE MORNING MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. -WOLTERS

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING IS APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
DRY TIMES FOR THE CWA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES A
RUN INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND 3C 700MB AND 15C 850MB DEWPOINTS...BUT WARMING TEMPS AND LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PREVENT MUCH
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING...FAVORING NORTHWESTERN AREAS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
RECENT NIGHTS. BOUNDARY WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK CAPPING TO PROVIDE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR IT.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY ON
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIODS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN JUST WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE IS IN QUESTION AS MODELS DIFFER IN CHARACTER OF
UPPER FLOW PATTERN. MAY ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTFLOW PUSH THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING COULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THIS TIME. -65

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...TS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TOP AND FOE
TERMINALS AFT 22Z. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBY TO A
1/2SM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY
PERSISTING AROUND AN HOUR AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITION TS OVERNIGHT IS LOWER AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS AFT THE INITIAL FROPA
UNTIL THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BECOMES MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE MOST PART ANTICIPATE THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LATEST MESOSCALE TRENDS THIS EVENING. -WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 00Z TONIGHT TO 18Z MONDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF AN ABILENE TO WESTMORELAND TO HOLTON
LINE...KSZ022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
358 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. A FEW MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ABILENE TO HOLTON. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATING FROM THESE STORMS
MAY CAUSE FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING...AND FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. RIVERS AND
CREEKS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO FLOOD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

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