Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2008

River Flood Warning 49, NWS Topeka, KS

October 23, 2008Clay County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this river flood warning at Oct 23, 2008, 8:55 AM CDT for Clay County, Kansas. It took effect at Oct 24, 2008, 7:32 AM CDT. It was in force for 39 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 23, 2008, 8:55 AM CDT (13:55 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 24, 2008, 7:32 AM CDT
Expired
Oct 25, 2008, 10:12 PM CDT
In force
39 hr
Issued by
NWS Topeka, KS
Flood severity
Minor

County Clay County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Republican River at Clay Center (CYCK1). The gauge peaked at 15.94 ft at Oct 24, 2008, 7:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderate10152010/2310/2410/2510/2610/27
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
15 ft
Moderate stage
22.5 ft
Major stage
28 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06856600, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS43 KTOP 231355
FLWTOP
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA, KS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS... 

  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-232155-
/O.NEW.KTOP.FL.W.0048.081023T2000Z-081027T2000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T2000Z.081024T1200Z.081027T0800Z.NO/
855 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA, KS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 29.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC027-232155-
/O.NEW.KTOP.FL.W.0049.081024T1350Z-081027T0224Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1350Z.081025T0600Z.081026T1424Z.NO/
855 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA, KS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 16.9 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
10 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 231907
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
207 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  POTTAWATOMIE CREEK NEAR SCIPIO 1SE AFFECTING ANDERSON AND FRANKLIN 
  COUNTIES 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-240307-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.081023T1935Z-081027T2000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1935Z.081024T1200Z.081027T0800Z.NO/
207 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 29.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING.


$$

KSC029-240306-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081024T2327Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081024T0000Z.081024T0527Z.NO/
207 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.9 FEET...FARM FIELD ALONG THE NORTH BANK OF THE 
  BUFFALO CREEK FLOODS.

$$

KSC003-059-240306-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-081024T1300Z/
/SIPK1.1.ER.081023T1118Z.081023T1830Z.081024T0100Z.NO/
207 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE POTTAWATOMIE CREEK NEAR SCIPIO 1SE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.6 FEET...FARMERS FIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE CREEK NEAR
  OHIO ROAD FLOODS.

$$

KSC027-240306-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0049.081024T1350Z-081027T0224Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1350Z.081025T0600Z.081026T1424Z.NO/
207 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  1:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 16.9 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 240039
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC029-240839-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081024T2258Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081024T0458Z.NR/
739 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR ITS CREST...AND IS FORECAST TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...THE NORTH BANK OF THE BUFFALO CREEK FLOODS. 
  LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES FROM 763 ROAD TO THE REPUBLICAN RIVER.

$$

KSC027-240838-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.081024T1500Z-081027T0000Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1500Z.081025T0600Z.081026T1200Z.NO/
739 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY 
  MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY 
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 240656
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
156 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-241456-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T1525Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1200Z.081026T0325Z.NO/
156 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 30.0 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY BEFORE 
  MIDNIGHT.

$$

KSC027-241456-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.081024T1232Z-081027T0000Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1232Z.081025T0000Z.081026T1200Z.NO/
156 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  1:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 16.4 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 241355
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-242155-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T1700Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1300Z.081026T0500Z.NO/
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC029-242155-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081025T1536Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081024T2136Z.NR/
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.9 FEET...FARM FIELD ALONG THE NORTH BANK OF THE 
  BUFFALO CREEK FLOODS.

$$

KSC027-242155-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081026T2230Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1343Z.081025T0000Z.081026T1030Z.NO/
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 241920
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-250320-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T1600Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T0400Z.NO/
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC029-250320-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081026T0017Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081025T0617Z.NR/
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.9 FEET...FARM FIELD ALONG THE NORTH BANK OF THE 
  BUFFALO CREEK FLOODS.

$$

KSC027-250320-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081027T0224Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0000Z.081026T1424Z.NO/
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 250307
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-251107-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081027T0112Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T1312Z.NO/
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC029-251107-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081026T0017Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081025T0617Z.NR/
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK AS THE
  SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS.

$$

KSC027-251107-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081027T0224Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0600Z.081026T1424Z.NO/
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS BETWEEN 16TH...17TH AND 18TH
  ROADS AND BETWEEN LIMESTONE AND OSAGE ROADS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 250951
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-251751-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081027T0000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T1200Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.


$$

KSC029-251750-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081025T2118Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081025T0318Z.NR/
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK AS THE
  SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS.

$$

KSC027-251750-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081027T0900Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0145Z.081026T2100Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOWLAND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  HIGHWAY 24 TO MILFORD LAKE.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 251442
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-252242-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T2000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T0800Z.NO/
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC029-252241-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081026T0800Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081025T1400Z.NR/
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK AS THE
  SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS.

$$

KSC027-252241-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081026T2100Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0145Z.081026T0900Z.NO/
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOWLAND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  HIGHWAY 24 TO MILFORD LAKE.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 252236
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN AFFECTING CLOUD COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS..
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-260636-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T2000Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T0800Z.NO/
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC027-260636-
/O.CON.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081026T2100Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0145Z.081026T0900Z.NO/
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOWLAND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  HIGHWAY 24 TO MILFORD LAKE.

$$

KSC029-252306-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-081026T0800Z/
/JMSK1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081023T2300Z.081025T1400Z.NR/
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR JAMESTOWN.
* AT  1:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 10.4 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE CREEK AS THE
  SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KTOP 260312
FLSTOP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1012 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS IN KANSAS...
 
  BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS AFFECTING MARSHALL COUNTY 
 
SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS.  SHALLOW FLOWING 
WATER CAN WASH A CAR FROM THE ROADWAY.  ALSO...THE ROADBED MAY BE 
WASHED OUT UNDER THE WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO LATER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO 
AND LOCAL MEDIA.  

KSC117-261112-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-081026T2100Z/
/BLRK1.1.ER.081023T1903Z.081024T1700Z.081026T0900Z.NO/
1012 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  MARYSVILLE TO TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

$$

KSC027-260342-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-081026T2100Z/
/CYCK1.1.ER.081024T1356Z.081025T0145Z.081026T0100Z.NO/
1012 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT CLAY CENTER.
* AT 10:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.5 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...LOWLAND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS FROM 
  HIGHWAY 24 TO MILFORD LAKE.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 23, 6:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 23, 6:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO USE COVERAGE TERMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH A MOIST COLUMN WILL LEND TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD BE STEADY OR
ONLY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION ACROSS EASTERN KS MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE
ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. THINK THAT CIGS AT MHK...CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW AND WITH COOLER SFC TEMPS...WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR.
THINK MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT VCSH IN THE TERMINALS SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 18Z FRI. THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR...BUT
THEY MAY LOWER TOWARDS 1000 FT BY 12Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN REASSESS.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008/
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HRS BEFORE FINALLY EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
UP INTO THIS SYSTEM IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC GENERALLY
PINNING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELT FROM NORTHERN MO WEST TOWARDS
NORTHEASTERN NE AND THEN BACK AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH
WESTERN NE AND INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. THE DRY SLOT WAS WORKING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AS WELL GENERALLY WITHIN THE RADIUS OF THE MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND. AT 08Z THE DRY SLOT SEEMED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN BACK INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. MOISTURE SEEMED TO BE BISECTING THE
CWA...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
CROPPING UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
MAKES VERY SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS MOISTURE AND DRY
AIR LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPIRAL THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING ON AND
OFF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER
NORTHERN NE AND CAUSING THE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN KS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO RE SATURATE THE MID LEVELS AND
BRING ABOUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK ENOUGH LOW LVL WARM AIR IS
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE CWA TO PREVENT ANY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION REMAINING
LIQUID FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM FILLS IN WITH TIME...SO
WILL HAVE LESS DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH LOWERS THE ODDS OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LITTLE
DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION. A QUICK
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB FROM
NEAR 0 DEG C ON FRIDAY TO 10-14 DEG C ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING A GOOD 15 DEG F OR SO ABOVE FRIDAYS EXPECTED HIGHS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE BRIEF WARM
UP ON SATURDAY. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE PLAINS...SO
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO TAP INTO A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA HOWEVER...WHICH
WILL LIKELY BRING US OUR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON HERE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPEED OF SHALLOW COLD AIR...OR STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOWS...4 DAYS OUT. REGARDLESS THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. H850 THERMAL GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF ERROR 4-5 DAYS
OUT...BUT WITH THE STRONG SFC HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POLAR
AIRMASS REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA IN THE GFS AND ECMWF FELT MORE
CONFIDENT IN THE CWA REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GRADIENT
WHICH IS WHY TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS LOOK TO FALL AT OR BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK. WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING
MARK...THIS COULD GO EITHER WAY...BUT PROBABILITY OF ACTUALLY
FREEZING WILL BE BETTER UNDERSTOOD A DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 23, 4:49 AM CDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
449 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG BUFFALO CREEK IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE BIG BLUE RIVER IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
POTTAWATOMIE CREEK IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE INDIVIDUAL RIVER
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CAVANAUGH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 23, 5:56 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTOPAnderson, Franklin15 hr
Oct 23, 8:55 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTOPMarshall3 days
Oct 23, 9:59 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTOPCloud56 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2008Every river flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.