River Flood Warning 42, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...CONT IN DEEP TROP PLUME FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST INDC THIS
TREND WILL CONT TODAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY LIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SFC LO OF 1010MB WAS
CURRENTLY OVR S-CNTRL KS WITH A WRMFNT EWD INTO E-CNTRL KS. THIS
SFC LO IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN ALNG
WITH THE WRMFNT LIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. ENHANCED WIND
FIELD ARND THE PV OVR CNTRL KS CREATING A FAVORABLE LO LVL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN
WITH A STORM EARLIER IN LYON COUNTY. THUS MAIN CHANGE TO GOING
FORECAST WAS TO UPDATE THE HWO FOR THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...LOWERED GOING HIGHS A TOUCH IN
THE NW WHERE PERSISTENT RAIN AND COOL NERLY LO LVL FLOW SHLD CONT.

NEW ZFP/GRIDS ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND
ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU
06Z TONIGHT WITH LO LVL FLOW TURNS MORE NWRLY AND THE LO LEVEL DRY
A BIT. THUS WL CONT THE PRECIP AND MVFR CONDS THRU THAT TIME. SOME
IFR NOTED THIS MRNG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND WL HANDLE THAT
WITH TEMPO GROUPS AND SHORT TERM UPDATES FOR HEAVIER BANDS MOVING
THRU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL DURATION AND RATE IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST.

00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
LOWS NEAR SLC AND THE NORTHERN BAJA WITH 50-60M 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DEEP MOISTURE WAS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM MAF TO TOP TO ILX AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. A MODIFIED
COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHING FROM NORTH TEXAS TO EASTERN IOWA AT 08Z
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...THE MOST INTENSE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN UPPER LOWS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL UPPER
WAVE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE LIKELY SHIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLING
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME RESPECTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE. THE
B.C. WAVE WILL PUSH THE ROCKIES UPPER WAVE EAST TONIGHT AND INDUCE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN IOWA...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTWARD SURGING BOUNDARY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SURGE INTO THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE TODAY /NEAR THE HIGHEST LEVELS ON RECORD FOR TOP IN
SEPTEMBER/ AND SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
ALTHOUGH RATES MAY NOT BE NEAR THOSE OF THIS PAST EVENING IN THE
CNK VICINITY...HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BY
LATE TONIGHT. AS SEEN IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...CONCERN IS NOW
GREATER FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MAY BE
THE MOST PROLONGED...AND NOW WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER MOIST. HAVE SPREAD THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS A RESULT. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL END TO THE RAIN SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT AND WAVE EXIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE RIVERS RISE BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDED ON STRETCHING THE WATCH AS THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE REALIZED.

A MORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TRACK FOR IKE IS ALSO SHOWING
ITSELF...THOUGH FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RAINFALL
FROM IT. HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD BEHIND THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF.

65

AVIATION...
TAF SITES HAVE SEEN A SMALL WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE MVFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BETWEEN 06-08Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR MHK
FOR IFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ENHANCED PRECIP BAND
SHIFTS CLOSER. FORECAST CONTINUES AN EXTENDED DURATION OF RAINFALL
PERIODS DURING THE TAF FORECAST...SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131630-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE...OR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ANYTIME
TODAY BEFORE 8 PM THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD TODAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND
VERY HUMID. DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
943 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
09/12/2008                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER QUICKLY FLOWING OVER ROAD 155. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 99.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW OLPE              38.28N 96.24W
09/12/2008  M3.80 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 12 HOURS.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1131 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SSE OLPE                38.26N 96.16W
09/12/2008  M4.25 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE OLPE              38.22N 96.14W
09/12/2008  M4.50 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 5PM OF PREVIOUS EVENING.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW HARVEYVILLE        38.73N 96.01W
09/12/2008  M3.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

JL

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