River Flood Warning 18, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. ACTIVE CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING TO EVOLVE AND SUSPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IMMINENT. WINDS ARE STILL STRONG FROM
THE SOUTH AND WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 01 UTC. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
PRIOR TO THIS...AS LONG AS CELLS CAN REMAIN ISOLATED WILL SEE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...BUT CAN NOT BE DISMISSED
WITH ISOLATED CELLS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW WITH CYCLOGENESIS IN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AS VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING COPIOUS MOISTURE NEEDED
TO MAKE FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS THREAT.

HARDING

PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT COME THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE KEY AS
TO WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CWA. THE
ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE FRONT ALONG THE TURNPIKE FROM LAWRENCE TO
EMPORIA SOUTHWEST WITH THE GFS AND NAM FURTHER WEST. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THE WAVES WILL EJECT EAST
ACROSS KANSAS. STORMS THAT DO GO UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ALSO HELP TO OVERCOME ANY CINH IN THE EVENING.
HIGH THETA-E AIR WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO TRAINING
OF CELLS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

NOT SURE IF STORMS GET GOING ALONG THE FRONT IF WE WILL SEE A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT THE NAM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
AS THE SOUTHERN STORMS WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW AND MOISTURE. THUS
WILL GO WITH SOME SMALLER POPS IN THE NORTH AND FOCUS HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET
ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE WILL KEEP FOCUS OF BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES
EARLY IN THE DAY THEN MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING THEN DRY THEREAFTER.
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE DAY FOR SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS POINT
TO AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY INT HE NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO MAY TOUCH OFF
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MCS
MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE REMAINS FOCUSED OUT WEST INT HE
HIGH PLAINS AND EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRIER AIR OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS VERY SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD PASS
THROUGH KTOP BY 08 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND MAY SEE VISIBILITIES MVFR OR BELOW IN THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. POST FRONTAL WEATHER ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.

HARDING

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
347 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT IS VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN AFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY. AT THE MOMENT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

HARDING

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