River Flood Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN VORT LOBE ROTATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO SOUTHWEST KS AT 20Z...WITH AN 80 KTS 500MB SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION LEFT.

WITH VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR
INITIALLY. STORMS WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. AS
THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. STRAIT LINE
WINDS WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...THAN
MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A LITTLE DRYER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD. MODELS SHOW PWS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING. WITH STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY INITIALLY...THERE COULD BE A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AS STORMS PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 4
IN/HOUR. THEN THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH STILL CAPABLE OF
PROFICIENT RAINFALL. WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE... FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR
SUGGESTS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS SHOW THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME
CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING...THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT SPEND A GREAT DEAL OF TIME ON THE EXTENDED SO FOLLOWED HPC/S
LEAD FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES APPROACHING THE FA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION WITH TAF FORECAST IT TIMING THE CONVECTION INTO THE
TERMINALS. UTILIZED THE NAM FOR TIMING THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS...AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. THINK TS WILL MOVE INTO MHK
BY 01Z AND TOP/FOE BY 03Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION FOR
TIMING TRENDS..BUT IF STORMS END UP BEING AS STRONG AS WE
EXPECT...MAY NEED TO LOWER TAFS TO IFR OR LIFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING. KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035.

WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-056-058-059.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
KSZ008>010-020>022-034>037.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
421 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SQUALL LINE
THIS EVENING...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NOW. SPOTTERS
WILL BE NEEDED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING.

WOLTERS

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