Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHEAST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID INTO NE KS
OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
LOWER 50S. LOW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WAA REGIME DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE
ATTM.

WARM FRONT BECOMES QUITE DIFFICULT TO DEFINE AS IT RETREATS ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND INSTIGATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
DOES SO. HAVE INCREASED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE SW...PROGRESSING
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD INSTABILITY
RUNNING OVER 1000 J/KG BY MID DAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN EASILY
OVERCOME BY SHORTWAVE. SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG BUT GOOD
INSTABILITY COULD MAKE SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED BOTH WITH WAVELENGTH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM. COULD BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT WITH PW ANALYSIS
SHOWING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY IN OKLAHOMA BELIEVE GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HAVE GONE WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND COULD
GET AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT FFG IS
1.4 INCHES OR MORE...AND LACK HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NECESSITY OF A
WATCH. NOTED THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TRAINING OF STORMS
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. BRUNT OF PRECIP PROGGED TO FALL IN THE
0Z-9Z TIMEFRAME AS WAVE TRAVERSES EASTERN KS THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS IS BRIEF ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS AGAIN
GENERATING QPF ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THINK WE WILL SEE
A REPRIEVE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY HAVE RECOVERED WITH ENOUGH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND SUNSHINE TO RETURN STORM THREAT BY AFTERNOON. DIDNT GET TOO
FANCY WITH THE GRIDS AND LEFT A SLT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN ALL DAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FRONT WITH MAIN TROF SURGES INTO THE STATE EARLY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ON
CURRENT TRACK. BETTER SHEAR COULD BRING SLIGHT INCREASE IN RISK
FOR STRONG STORMS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH EARLY PASSAGE
LOOKS LIKE MOST CONVECTION WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL AND WIND
MAIN CONCERN.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT COOLER...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND DEPARTING
WAVE...WITH HIGHS SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 70. MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BORDERLINE MVFR
STRATUS MOVE NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX WILL KEEP
SOME CONCERN FOR SIMILAR RESTRICTIONS FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALSO INCREASE...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
PRECIP POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE ENCOUNTERS DEEPENING MOISTURE...BUT
HARD TO PICK ANY PARTICULAR TIME FOR LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

67/65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1008 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1008 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 99 LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 99.

STARK

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