Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 082108
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

KSC197-082330-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-080708T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WABAUNSEE-
406 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THE CLOSER OF HIGHWAY K-99 TO 
THE NORTH OF ALMA. STORM SPOTTERS INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL OF ANOTHER 
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...MAPLE HILL...MCFARLAND AND PAXICO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 346.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3896 9649 3904 9649 3904 9639 3916 9639
      3916 9634 3918 9632 3917 9627 3920 9624
      3919 9615 3920 9610 3917 9607 3916 9610
      3915 9609 3912 9603 3913 9600 3909 9594
      3896 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 180DEG 0KT 3905 9627

$$

BOUSTEAD

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 082234
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

KSC197-082330-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-080708T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WABAUNSEE-
533 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE 
HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF WABAUNSEE COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAD FALLEN OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS WABAUNSEE 
COUNTY. MILL CREEK AT PAXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE 
THIS EVENING AND CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...MAPLE HILL...MCFARLAND AND PAXICO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 346.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3896 9649 3904 9649 3904 9639 3916 9639
      3916 9634 3918 9632 3917 9627 3920 9624
      3919 9615 3920 9610 3917 9607 3916 9610
      3915 9609 3912 9603 3913 9600 3909 9594
      3896 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 180DEG 0KT 3905 9627

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS CONVECTION. WARM/MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY. 19Z PROFILER NETWORK INDCS
UPPR LVL SHEAR AXIS EXTNDS FM ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AXIS IS LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACRS A GOOD PART OF THE CNTRL CWA. PWATS ABOVE 1.75
INCHES PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE EVNG WITH H85 BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SWD THRU THE FA. WL CONT TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF LO LVL FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT STORMS. HAVE INCREASED
GOING POPS TONIGHT IN THE SRN CWA AND ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH ATTM.
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY ATTM. WIDESPREAD CLDS AND PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TRENDING S OF THE FA DURING THE DAY ON WED. WL LEAVE
SOME LO CHC POPS IN THE SRN CWA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND A WEAKLY
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS. INCREASED GOING HIGHS IN THE NW CWA WHERE
GFS INCS A LITTLE BETTER MIXING WL OCCUR WITH SW H85 WINDS...BUT
TMPS ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA LOOK ON TRACK AND IS TOWARD THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE.

BOUSTEAD

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CWA QUICKLY BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
BACK THROUGH EASTERN KS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS VERY DIFFUSE BY THURSDAY...SO DO NOT BELIEVE A WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA
DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAM AND GFS ARE
HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHERE DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE
PRESENT...SO FEEL THAT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEN DIFFER ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP LATER IN
THE PERIOD. THE GFS INDICATES THE FRONT WILL SIT SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF SAGS THE FRONT SOUTH AND LIFTS IT NORTH AGAIN TOWARDS
TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DEFINE THE CHANCES OF TSTMS IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
MOIST AIRMASS AND PERIODS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SCT TSRA ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN NEAR THE TAF SITES...BUT MAIN AXIS OF THUNDER
MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE KTOP/KFOE AREA. WILL CONT TO MENTION SOME
THUNDER FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTN CLOSES TO WHEN H85 BOUNDARY
SLIPS THRU THE 3 TAFS SITES...BUT OTHERWISE...WLD EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
LIKELY. VFR CONDS SHLD PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN MID/UPPR LVL
DECK.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO TOPEKA TO LAWRENCE. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.