Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 060013
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSC061-149-161-060230-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-080606T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-GEARY-
713 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
GEARY...WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA AS STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER 
HOUR. 

AT 705 PM...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED CLARKS CREEK ROAD SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 70 HAD WATER FLOWING OVER IT FROM CLARKS CREEK. ALSO THE 
OBSERVER REPORTED FOUR AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY...KEATS...LOUISVILLE...OGDEN...ST.
GEORGE...TUTTLE CREEK LAKE...WESTMORELAND...GRANDVIEW PLAZA...GEARY
COUNTY STATE PARK...MILFORD STATE PARK AND TUTTLE CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 292 AND 319.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3935 9624 3916 9636 3916 9639 3913 9639
      3904 9645 3904 9649 3894 9649 3888 9651
      3887 9690 3912 9695 3947 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 180DEG 0KT 3899 9685

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 060234
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
932 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSC061-149-161-060242-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-080606T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-GEARY-
932 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GEARY...WESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE AND RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 932 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO 
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HOWEVER A COUNTY FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GEARY...RILEY 
AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM FRIDAY. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 292 AND 319.

LAT...LON 3935 9624 3916 9636 3916 9639 3913 9639
      3904 9645 3904 9649 3894 9649 3888 9651
      3887 9690 3912 9695 3947 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 180DEG 0KT 3899 9685

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN VORT LOBE ROTATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO SOUTHWEST KS AT 20Z...WITH AN 80 KTS 500MB SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION LEFT.

WITH VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR
INITIALLY. STORMS WILL HAVE A VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. AS
THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. STRAIT LINE
WINDS WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...THAN
MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A LITTLE DRYER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD. MODELS SHOW PWS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING. WITH STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY INITIALLY...THERE COULD BE A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AS STORMS PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 4
IN/HOUR. THEN THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH STILL CAPABLE OF
PROFICIENT RAINFALL. WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE... FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR
SUGGESTS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS SHOW THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME
CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING...THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT SPEND A GREAT DEAL OF TIME ON THE EXTENDED SO FOLLOWED HPC/S
LEAD FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES APPROACHING THE FA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION WITH TAF FORECAST IT TIMING THE CONVECTION INTO THE
TERMINALS. UTILIZED THE NAM FOR TIMING THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS...AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. THINK TS WILL MOVE INTO MHK
BY 01Z AND TOP/FOE BY 03Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION FOR
TIMING TRENDS..BUT IF STORMS END UP BEING AS STRONG AS WE
EXPECT...MAY NEED TO LOWER TAFS TO IFR OR LIFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING. KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035.

WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-056-058-059.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
KSZ008>010-020>022-034>037.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
421 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SQUALL LINE
THIS EVENING...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NOW. SPOTTERS
WILL BE NEEDED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING.

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             1 SW WATERVILLE         39.68N 96.76W
06/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             OGDEN                   39.11N 96.71W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
605 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             MANHATTAN               39.09N 97.32W
06/05/2008  E2.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             2 S MANHATTAN           39.15N 96.57W
06/05/2008  E2.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             6 NNW ST. GEORGE        39.27N 96.46W
06/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW WOODBINE          38.85N 96.99W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS