Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /307 PM CDT FRI SEP 12/...
STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM. MRNG UPPR AIR ANLYS
INDCD THAT INDEED THE GFS WAS CORRECT IN DVLPNG THE MID LVL PV
ANOMALY YESTERDAY...AND NOW THIS ANOMALY /PER AFTN WATER VAPOR/ WAS
LOCATED OVR CNTRL KS. UPSTRM FM THE ANOMALY...UPPR LVL SHRTWV TROF
WAS LOCATED OVR NW WY ASSOCIATED WITH A 100 KT H3 JET AND 40 TO 50 M
HEIGHT FALLS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY AT 18Z
WAS NEAR KHUT. MAIN AREA OF EXPANSIVE PRECIP CONTD TO MOVE NEWD THRU
THE CWA.

FIRST THING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IS THE INDUCED SFC LO OVR
CNTRL KS AND THIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD THRU THE CWA OVR THE NEXT
12 HRS DRAGGING THE WRMFNT OVR E-CNTRL KS NE WITH IT. MODIFIED 12Z
RAOB FM KTOP INDCS ATMOSPHERE OVR SE KS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE WITH
THE WEAK INHIBITION IN THIS TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...ISO CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVR THE SRN CWA INTO
THE EARLY EVNG. ISO SVR WX WL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE. GIVEN THE
ENHANCED LO LVL FLOW ARND THE SFC CYCLONE...ISO TORNADOES CONT TO BE
THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT THIS EVNG. THIS TREND SHLD QUICKLY END BY
MID/LATE EVNG AS LO LVL ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...AS SFC LO
MOVES NEWD TONIGHT...EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIP SHLD TEND TO MOVE WITH
IT TO OUR NE. CDFNT BEHIND THE LO SHLD CONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIP THOUGH THRU THE NIGHT GIVEN CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE TROPICAL AIRMASS/WEAK STABILITY. PRECIP AREA SHLD BE
INCREASINGLY NARROW TONIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE MAIN AXIS SETTING UP
FM ARND COUNCIL GROVE/EMPORIA NORTHEAST TO TOP/LWC. ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS IN THIS ZONE ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN AND
GIVEN THE ONGOING MINOR FLOODING ACRS THE AREA...WL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING THRU 12Z ON SAT IN THAT AREA.

AS UPPR LVL SHRTWV OVR WY EJECTS NEWD THRU NEB/IA ON SAT
MRNG...CDFNT WL START TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SE THRU THE CWA. THUS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE NW CWA SHLD START TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION END. THUS WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW CWA
WITH THIS PACKAGE. SFC CDFNT WL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF
THE FA THRU THE DAY ON SAT THOUGH GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE
S AND E OF THE FA. THUS HAVE INCREASED GOING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
SAT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHTER...AND
THUS ATTM WILL NOT EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE DAY ON SAT. DID
INCREASED HIGHS IN OUR NW ON SAT THOUGH WITH MORE SUN IS EXPECTED AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE CWA FM THE NW.

BOUSTEAD

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE BRINGING ANOTHER BAND OF TROPICAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS DEFORMATION TROPICAL
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A SHARP CUT OFF ACROSS THE CWA AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WORKING IN WEST OF THIS DEFORMATION ZONE.
FOR NOW...IF REMNANTS OF IKE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE CWA...THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THE AERIAL EXTENT LOOKS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TRACK FOR THE REMNANTS OF IKE TAKES THE CENTROID
TRACK FOR IKE FURTHER EAST THAN 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES...SO NO
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE TRACK AND SPEED OF IKE ARE BETTER
UNDERSTOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY EVENING...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA...BRINGING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHUNT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
IKE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z MONDAY.  FROM
MONDAY ON...GENERAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS SLOW
TO BUILD IN...BUT CANNOT SEE ANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THROW POPS IN THE FORECAST ATTM.  HAVE A
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST
BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS SEPARATING LIFR
CIGS AND VSBY TO THE WEST AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST. LATEST
RUC AND NAM MSLP PROG BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH MHK AROUND 08Z AND
TOP AND FOE AROUND 10Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DUE TO
PRECIP WITH CIGS BKN015 AND VSBY AROUND 3SM WITH TEMPO VFR WHEN NOT
IN THE PRECIP. ONCE THE SFC TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST...IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. TIMING OF THIS CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037
-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131630-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE...OR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ANYTIME
TODAY BEFORE 8 PM THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD TODAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND
VERY HUMID. DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1122 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     FLOOD            4 SW LAWRENCE           38.93N 95.29W
09/12/2008                   DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STREET FLOODING WITH FLOWING WATER OF ABOUT 5 INCHES DEEP
            ON 26TH STREET NEAR HOLCOM PARK. WATER COVERING THE
            STREET UP TO THE CROWN OF THE ROAD.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW ALMA               39.09N 96.38W
09/13/2008  M2.60 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       E LAWRENCE              38.97N 95.24W
09/13/2008  M4.01 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL. 3.54 INCHES IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&