Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TAF SITES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS CREEPING INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST
KANSAS FROM RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
MISSOURI. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL MIX SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT ENTRY
INTO TOP/FOE SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INSERTED SOME GUSTS IN MHK FOR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING FOR TOP/FOE AND INSERTED MENTION IN FORECAST THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH
BKN 10 KFT DECK LEFT BEHIND. BLAIR

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A
BROAD RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BACK WEST OVER SOUTHERN CA.
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS HAVE FLATTENED
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A TROUGH WAS
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KS STRETCHING NORTH. A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
WAS FOUND EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOR THIS MORNING...THE RUC AND NAM 310K ISENTROPIC SFC KEEPS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN APART. SO EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK WIND SHIFT
SLIDING INTO NORTHERN KS. MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
BETWEEN 850 AND 800MB. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. COOLEST SPOT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER...WITH THE WARMEST SPOT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THINK BECAUSE OF THIS...CONVECTION THAT HAS PASSED
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES
CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS TONIGHT AND SPREAD CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. USED PERSISTENCE FOR THE
TEMP FORECAST AS AIRMASS APPEARS TO CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY.
DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO OCCUR LONG ENOUGH DURING ANY GIVEN DAY TO
APPRECIABLY HAMPER DAY TIME HEATING.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
VORT MAX CLIPPING NORTHEAST KS. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FORECAST WAS LEFT PRETTY MUCH IN TACT
BEYOND SUNDAY.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
328 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL
POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  MORE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A CHANCE SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS.

GDP

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