Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2008, 3:08 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2008, 3:08 PM MDT (21:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2008, 4:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 52 min
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
County Fergus County, MT
The radar
The Billings radar (KBLX), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 176 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 2:51 PM MDT, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 2:51 PM MDT, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 251 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2008 .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 45 TO 50 DEG F CONTINUE TO BE POOLED INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH STRONG MEAN FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KTS BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB...STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG STORMS OVER CENTRAL...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST...MONTANA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL THREAT...AS WELL AS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CWA ON WESTERN BOUNDARY OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY WED THRU FRI WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG ROCKY MTN FRONT ON SAT AS WEAK UPPER TROF SKIRTS US/CAN BORDER. WARANAUSKAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FAIRLY STAGNANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR DAYS 7 AND 8...WITH A PERSISTENT CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...AND LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK ATMOSPHERE STABILITY. CONSEQUENTLY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING BOTH DAYS...PARTICULARLY NEAR PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. ZUMPFE && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FROM 21Z TO 03Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS AT KBZN AND KLWT BUT OTHER TERMINALS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION. WILL UPDATE DISCUSSION AND INDIVIDUAL TAFS ONCE BETTER TIMING OF POTENTIAL STORMS IS DETERMINED. MPJ && .HYDROLOGY... CONTINUED SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS. RIVER LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE BANKFULL ON THE SMITH RIVER 13 MILES SOUTH OF ULM AND NEAR INTERSTATE 90 IN SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...AND RISES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ON BADGER CREEK NEAR BROWNING AND THE SUN RIVER WEST OF GREAT FALLS. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SMITH RIVER AND OTHER SMALL STREAMS IN CASCADE...BROADWATER...GALLATIN... JEFFERSON...AND MADISON COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 82 51 77 / 20 20 20 20 CTB 46 79 48 75 / 10 10 10 20 HLN 50 87 52 83 / 10 20 20 20 BZN 49 85 48 82 / 20 20 20 20 WEY 41 77 41 76 / 20 20 20 20 DLN 47 81 47 79 / 10 20 20 20 HVR 50 84 51 79 / 20 10 20 10 LWT 47 78 47 73 / 20 20 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. ...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY (MTZ012)... ...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BROADWATER...GALLATIN...JEFFERSON...AND MADISON COUNTIES (MTZ007...MTZ031...MTZ043...AND MTZ057)... && SHORT TERM...COHEN LONG TERM...WARANAUSKAS/ZUMPFE AVIATION...MPJ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 12:32 PM MDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1232 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2008 MTZ012-171230- CASCADE- 1232 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CASCADE COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE SMITH RIVER...ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF ULM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CASCADE COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM MDT TUESDAY. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CAUSE INCREASED SNOWMELT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...RIVER... CREEK...AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MTZ008>010-014-015-046-048>055-171230- BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER- CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-EASTERN PONDERA- SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS- JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN- 1232 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CAUSE INCREASED SNOWMELT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...RIVER... CREEK...AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL MONTANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. MTZ011-013-044-045-047-171230- HILL-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-BLAINE- 1232 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. COHEN
The office that day
Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 1:57 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | TFX | Broadwater | 12 min |
| Jun 16, 2:14 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | TFX | Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson, Madison | 14 days |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2008Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.