High Wind Watch 3, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
353 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HIGH
WINDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND EAST GLACIER
COUNTY...FOLLOWED BY A WINTER WEATHER WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT. AND
FARTHER EAST...WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR JUDITH BASIN
AND FERGUS COUNTIES. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
EAST AND BY TONIGHT...THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
CONTINUES WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL HELP THE PRODUCE
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR FROM CANADA
IS DUE TO CROSS THE BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE VERY COLD ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COLDFRONT AND HIGH LIGHTS MAY BE REQUIRED...BUT FOR THE MOMENT WILL
HANDLE IN THE HWO. ZELZER

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS RESULTS
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE...TO A CHANCE
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES EAST OF OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELP KEEP THE PLAINS AND SOME LARGER
VALLEYS MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MOST AREAS. EK

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE MOVED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE
BRUNT OF THIS COLD AIRMASS. AREAS OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP RIGHT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND OVER THE LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
CUT BANK AND HAVRE AREAS...BUT FORECASTED TEMPS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE MOST PERIODS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD ON
TUESDAY...THEN THINGS GET TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD A BIT...AS MILD AIR STARTS TO PUSH BACK
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS/20S ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...AND BARELY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW I HAVE THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
CUT BANK TO LEWISTOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANY CHANGE
IN FRONTAL POSITION EAST OR WEST BY JUST A FEW MILES WILL HAVE A
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY...THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT...THAT THE COLD AIR SHOULD RETREAT BACK
INTO EASTERN MONTANA FOR A FEW HOURS...THUS I HAVE THINGS WARMING UP
A BIT. ANOTHER WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING BACK SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THOUGH. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG GUSTY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
AROUND KCTB. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOMSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  30  38  -7 /   0  10  20  40
CTB  39  24  33 -14 /   0  10  70  50
HLN  34  18  34   9 /   0  10  20  40
BZN  35  16  34   8 /   0  10  10  50
WEY  24   6  24  15 /  20  30  90  90
DLN  39  22  35  14 /  10  10  40  50
HVR  41  23  38  -6 /   0  10  20  40
LWT  41  25  43  -2 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ009-010-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR MTZ009-048.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MTZ050-051.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
958 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008

MTZ009-048-261200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
958 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 65
MPH...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS TO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ010-261200-
EASTERN GLACIER-
958 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH...ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY. A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ011>014-044>047-049>051-261200-
HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-
LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
958 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008-015-052>055-261200-
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
958 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1205 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
01/25/2008  E45.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 40 TO 48 MPH FROM 4 PM UNTIL 6 PM.

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE             48.29N 112.83W
01/25/2008  M66.00 MPH       PONDERA            MT   MESONET

            66 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION.

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING                48.56N 113.01W
01/25/2008  M54.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT BROWNING.

0811 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
01/25/2008  M58.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.37N 113.10W
01/25/2008  M77.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            77 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1217 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BABB                    48.86N 113.44W
01/25/2008  M83.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 83 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45
            MPH. WINDS WERE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
            SNOW.

0600 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
01/25/2008  E45.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 40 TO 48 MPH FROM 4 PM UNTIL 6 PM.

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE             48.29N 112.83W
01/25/2008  M66.00 MPH       PONDERA            MT   MESONET

            66 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HEART BUTTE RAWS LOCATION.

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING                48.56N 113.01W
01/25/2008  M54.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT BROWNING.

0811 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W PENDROY             48.06N 112.34W
01/25/2008  M58.00 MPH       TETON              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.37N 113.10W
01/25/2008  M77.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            77 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

HERE IS SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS SO FAR THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
212 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
01/25/2008  M54.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

1145 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING                48.56N 113.01W
01/25/2008  M59.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            59 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1156 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
01/25/2008  M48.00 MPH       GLACIER            MT   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH AT THE CUT BANK
            AIRPORT.

&&

BRUSDA