Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF WIDE SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME
MUCH OF THE ACTION TOOK PLACE SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES.

AT 830 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN WAS
SHOWING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RUSKIN...SUN CITY CENTER..BOYETTE
AND GIBSONTON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COLLIDED WITH THE REMNANT ONSHORE FLOW TO
PRODUCE A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH FROM
MANATEE COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH. THERE ARE STILL
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SCATTERED OVER THE AREA AND SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
NOT AS STRONG.

AS POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS AFD DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WERE FOLLOWING THE PREDOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RIDING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HEADING INTO
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGEST
CLUSTERS COLLAPSED...AN ARRAY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE SPREADING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS RACING BACK
WESTWARD AND INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT AS THESE OUTFLOWS DISSIPATE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR WHATEVER STORMS MAY
FORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND PUSH THEM BACK TO THE EAST.
00Z TBW SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIS OF
-3...CAPE OF AROUND 1000 AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PWS THAN IN PREVIOUS
SOUNDINGS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES. BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND THE AREA AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BEING PUSHED BACK INLAND BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL
KEEP 40 POPS OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ARE REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS.
..MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH/NEARLY
CLOSED LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT IS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND STRETCHED OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. OTHERWISE HAVE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...NOT PROVIDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
BACKGROUND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF WIDELY SCAT TSTMS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...THEN VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN PATTERN...EXPECTING A REPEAT TOMORROW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON TSTM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...REYNES
AVIATION....PETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
527 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-011500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
527 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE COMBINES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND UPPER
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAUSING MINOR FLOODING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT TO ANY APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED
WARNING...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING. IF CAUGHT AT SEA...GO BELOW DECK AND REMAIN SHELTERED
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT RETURNS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COMBINE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FLZ051-011845-
HILLSBOROUGH-
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA
INCLUDING TEMPLE TERRACE...PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL...EAST LAKE-ORIENT
PARK...NORTH BRANDON AND MANGO...UNTIL 245 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING.

REYNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             BRANDON                 27.93N 82.29W
07/01/2008  E0.25 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR LITHIA PINE CREST AND SR 60.

&&

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FLZ055-060-011915-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SARASOTA AND
SOUTHERN MANATEE COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE
MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING HIDDEN RIVER AND MYAKKA CITY...UNTIL 315 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FLZ049-051-011930-
HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND
SOUTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED
AREA INCLUDING WESLEY CHAPEL...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER STATE AND
ZEPHYRHILLS...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FLZ052-056-011915-
HARDEE-POLK-
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HARDEE AND SOUTHWEST
POLK COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORT GREEN TO 2 MILES NORTH OF MYAKKA
HEAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
FORT GREEN...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

EO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             4 S WESLEY CHAPEL       28.18N 82.33W
07/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       PASCO              FL   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES.

&&

17