Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
132 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR LEVY COUNTY...

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
PLAINS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES
TO NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WITH A SURFACE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE NORTH GULF/FLORIDA TUE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ADD ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS. COMBINE THESE WITH SOME DAY
TIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE END RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. WED NIGHT AND
THEN OUT OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WED. THIS WILL SHIFT U/L
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA BUT ENOUGH WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED STORMS WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS WEST/LOW TO EAST/HIGH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DECAYS NORTH
OF THE AREA THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHERN FL AND
INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW SE TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOMES MORE UNIFORMLY SE ALTHOUGH
COASTAL LOCATIONS STILL SEE SOME ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
HIGHS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE TUE AND THEN RISE TO
NEAR AVERAGE WED.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
AS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHWARD WITH TIME DURING THE WEEK WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE AND MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OTHER LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARIES. WITH SURFACE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT EXPECT SEA
BREEZE FRONT TO MAKE FAST EASTWARD PROGRESS FROM KSRQ NORTHWARD WITH
TERMINALS EXPERIENCING VFR THROUGHOUT. TO THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN ADVECTING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INTO THE VICINITY WITH KFMY AND KRSW STANDING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHEN THE BOUNDARY COLLISION
OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE THU AS A SURFACE
RIDGE SLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FL. IT RESIDES ACROSS NORTH
FL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL BUMP WINDS SPEEDS UP BUT STILL ONLY TO 15KT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  74  89 /  30  70  20  40
FMY  72  90  72  89 /  30  70  20  50
GIF  73  89  73  90 /  30  70  20  50
SRQ  73  88  73  88 /  30  70  20  40
BKV  69  88  68  89 /  30  70  20  40
SPG  76  88  77  89 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CANTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1119 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-302100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1119 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM EDT FOR LEVY COUNTY...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA AND LIKELY CLIP NORTHERN
LEVY COUNTY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD
MOVEMENT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WORST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF LEVY COUNTY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS AND TROUGH...A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LEVY
COUNTY. STRONG WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE STORMS
TO ARRIVE WILL BE BETWEEN 1PM-5PM EDT.

ELSEWHERE...SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID-
LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST
INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD. FROM
CHARLOTTE COUNTY SOUTHWARD CONVECTION WILL IMPACT COASTAL AREAS AS
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STORMS AFFECTING ALL
LOCATIONS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

CANTIN

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