Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ROBUST UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE
TX COASTAL PLAIN WAS MOVING WEST. DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
REACHED WEST...OVER FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF.

THE TBW 88D IS RATHER QUIET...EXCEPT IN LEVY WHERE A FEW STORMS
HAVE PROMPTED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT JUST AFTER 1 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD...IN THE OHIO VALLY BY MON...AND CARVES OUT A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE SE U.S. THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR FOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA ALTHOUGH IT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD SOME...
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FL BY MON...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE GULF COAST. DEEP MOISTURE STAYS
IN PLACE AND IS ENHANCED BY WEST AND SW FLOW ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOONS LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA OFF THE GULF WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS
ONGOING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE LAND. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE NORTHWARD AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MORE STRONGLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE PENINSULA
WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A FIXTURE OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. TYPICAL LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS BEGINNING OVER NORTHERN AREAS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KFMY AND KRSW WHILE FURTHER
NORTH THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PARKED OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
INITIALLY OVER BAY AREA SITES.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PARKED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 10KT/2FT...OR LESS.
MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  76  90 /  20  40  20  40
FMY  74  92  74  91 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  75  93  75  92 /  20  50  20  50
SRQ  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
BKV  71  91  71  90 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CANTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
518 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-281400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
518 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAUSING MINOR STREET FLOODING. STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FLZ049-051-282030-
HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
346 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PASCO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST...WILL AFFECT MOON LAKE
ESTATES...ODESSA...LUTZ...LAND O LAKES...AND RURAL NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FLZ050-051-282145-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS AND WESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARROLLOWOOD TO PINELLAS
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH.  THE STORMS WILL AFFECT SAFETY
HARBOR...OLDSMAR...HIGHPOINT AND CLEARWATER...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FLZ055-060-062-282145-
MANATEE-CHARLOTTE-SARASOTA-
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SARASOTA...NORTHWEST
CHARLOTTE...AND WESTERN MANATEE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRADENTON TO
NORTHPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH.  THE STORMS WILL AFFECT PORT
CHARLOTTE...NORTH PORT...MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

EO

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