Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1251 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RIDGING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. SCT TO NMRS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH GENERALLY E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND S/SE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY...BUT GOOD HEATING AND THE
SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS WITH GENERALLY AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH GENERALLY UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
MEANDER AROUND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL START OUT THE PERIOD JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH BY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AROUND THE
BAY AREA BY MID WEEK. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN LIFT TO THE NE OVER CANADA BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- UPPER
LEVEL LOW ENHANCING THE DIURNAL WC SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. MODELS SHOWING A FRONT WITH THIS
FEATURE IN GEORGIA ON MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NOT MAKING THROUGH OUR AREA. POPS MAY TREND
UPWARD IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
CURRENTLY HAVE POPS AS ISOLATED DURING THE MORNING AND SCATTERED
(30-40) EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FLT CONDITIONS NEAR
STORMS IN THE MVFR CAT WITH IFR WITHIN ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AFTER TSTMS DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING GENERALLY SE
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. FOR LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
FLORIDA KEEPING MORE S/SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  76  92 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  74  93  73  93 /  30  40  20  40
GIF  74  92  75  93 /  30  50  20  40
SRQ  74  91  74  91 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  70  92  70  92 /  30  50  20  40
SPG  77  90  78  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...JLC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RD/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
510 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GENERATING SOME
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
CANT RULE OUT A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

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