Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT AND COLD TEMPS
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. BY LATE EVENING MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
HOWEVER WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AROUND AND ADEQUATE LIFT AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE MID/UPPER LOW REMAINING IN PLACE...WE MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES SO
WILL ADVERTISE A 20% POP MENTION FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH IN THE GRIDS
AND ZONES.

DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 RANGE) COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING...DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH...EXPECT CURRENT SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS VEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS (50%) TO SHIFT TOWARD INTERIOR
AND EASTERN MOST ZONES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGERS...WITH POPS TAPERING
BACK TO 30-40% RANGE ALONG THE COAST. WITH MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUING
TO SHOW RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S
INLAND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
OFF JUST EAST OF THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS
WELL. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT TO DO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF
HANGING ON THE THE RIDGING ALOFT...BUT GFS AND DGEX BREAKING IT DOWN
AND ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE
ECMWF EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT
NOT UNTIL MONDAY. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN
HERE IN MID JUNE.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DROPPING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SO POPS COME DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE MADE SOME
SUBTLE TWEAKS TO POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN THE SCATTERED RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF TODAYS STORMS
IN TEMPO GROUPS OF 18Z TAFS. STILL LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MAIN THREATS...WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE USED
VICINITY WORDING. BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH SINKS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTING A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  90  74  90 /  30  40  20  40
FMY  72  91  73  91 /  30  40  30  40
GIF  72  91  72  91 /  30  50  30  50
SRQ  71  89  72  89 /  30  40  20  40
BKV  68  91  68  91 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  76  89  77  89 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS