Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF
FLORIDA...WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEGINNING MONDAY. A THIRD
FEATURE...AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
THIS LOW...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL CONTINUE
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER FLORIDA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES MORE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
OVERHEAD INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
PROGRESS INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUESDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED INLAND THAN EXPERIENCED IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -9 CELSIUS DURING THESE CONVECTIVE
PERIODS...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER ALONG COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OFF EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS COULD STILL BE AROUND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RIDGING
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THEN SUNDAY A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST COMBINES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NUDGE THIS RIDGE BACK WEST. GFS AND ECMWF TRY
TO BRING A LOW/FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH.

THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY SHOULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. FRIDAY MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE BUT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THE FOCUS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOUGH GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEING HIGHER OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL
GO WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT TAF
SITES...SO HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING AT EACH SITE.
STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS FROM A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL AFFECT
MANY GULF AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  74  91 /  20  50  30  50
FMY  72  91  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
GIF  73  91  73  90 /  10  40  30  50
SRQ  72  90  72  89 /  20  50  30  50
BKV  70  92  70  92 /  20  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  77  89 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-082115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
501 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL COMBINE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECT
TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME
ENHANCED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN COASTAL AREAS AS THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MODERATE
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PUSHING THE ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SOME STORM MAY BE STRONG WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AS SUMMERTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZES PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

RD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

FLZ055-060>062-065-082145-
DE SOTO-MANATEE-CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA-
504 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 545
PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR PORT
CHARLOTTE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT CAPE
CORAL...CLEVELAND...FORT OGDEN AND PUNTA GORDA...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

EO

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