Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TRAILING WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR BROAD AND DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE. MORNING SOUNDINGS
INDICATED A LOWER ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO THE UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PIN THE SEA
BREEZE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...SO STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOUND
NEAR THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERIC PLAYERS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REBOUND UPWARD A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MID TO LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS AND MID TO LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWS. WINDS WILL NOT POSE A
BIG PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S.
ROTATES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAKNESS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OR GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS HANDLE THIS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENTLY BUT WITH NO MAJOR EFFECT ON THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF AND MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. AND FL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH ALONG
LATITUDE 30 NORTH IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH BY FRI AS IT RIDGES
WESTWARD...MEANDERING ACROSS FL AND THE GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW
END CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE EVENINGS MAINLY OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A
DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z - 07/18Z. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME OCNL BKN
MVFR CIGS AROUND BUT VFR TO PREVAIL. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM AND SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH JUST VCTS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ON THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR COASTAL AREAS...ALONG WITH
BAYS...MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE ON THE INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE TO THREE HOURS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...OTHER THAN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CURRENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  93  75  93 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  72  93  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
SRQ  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  69  94  69  94 /  20  20  20  20
SPG  78  91  78  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL COUNTIES 1 PM EDT TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
JUNE 7TH.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

FLZ060-062-062045-
CHARLOTTE-SARASOTA-
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SARASOTA COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WARM
MINERAL SPRINGS...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE GARDENS...VENICE AND SOUTH
VENICE...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
438 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

FLZ060-062-062130-
CHARLOTTE-SARASOTA-
438 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN SARASOTA
AND NORTHWEST CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT WARM
MINERAL SPRINGS...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE GARDENS...SOUTH
VENICE...MANASOTA KEY...AND VENICE...UNTIL 530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

JCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
455 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WSW VENICE            27.09N 82.49W
06/06/2008  M39.00 MPH       GMZ853             FL   PUBLIC

            HOME WEATHER STATION MEASURED 34 KNOT OR 39 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

JCM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

FLZ043-048-062200-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY AND
EASTERN HERNANDO COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BUSHNELL...WEBSTER...NOBLETON...CROOM...AND RIDGE MANOR...UNTIL 600
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

JCM

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