Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
203 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING FROM WIND TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF FAY...WITH THE
CENTER LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE FAY IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 8
MPH. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST UNDER THE RAIN BANDS...AND
WILL MOST MOST LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF HIGHLANDS AND POLK
COUNTY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL LOCATION OF
FAY...ONLY INCLUDING HIGHLANDS COUNTY FOR NOW. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING THROUGH 8 PM...WITH AN EXTENSION IN TIME VERY POSSIBLE
IF FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ITS CURRENT SLOW PACE.

SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE INITIALLY THAT FAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NAVIGATE EASTWARD ALONG WITH
THE CIRCULATION...WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FILLING IN BEHIND. BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAY IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD BACK TOWARD FLORIDA. A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHERE THIS WESTERLY MOVEMENT WILL TAKE FAY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE FUTURE MOVEMENT
AND OVERALL STRENGTH AND IMPACTS FAY WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT PRESENCE OF FAY COMBINED
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS 2) SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FORECAST AREA (POPS 50%) THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN/SQUALLS ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FORT MYERS
AND REGIONAL SOUTHWEST TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FROM SARASOTA NORTH TO TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG
PRESENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS RAIN BANDS FROM FAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN AREAS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM FAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD AND NEAR 4 FEET
BETWEEN ENGLEWOOD AND BONITA BEACH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  87  77  90 /  50  60  40  50
FMY  76  88  76  90 /  50  60  40  50
GIF  75  89  75  90 /  60  70  60  60
SRQ  76  87  77  90 /  50  60  40  50
BKV  74  88  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
SPG  79  86  80  90 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     HIGHLANDS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
              FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
857 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
857 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORMS FAY IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA. FAY WILL ALSO BRING THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES EARLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HEAVIER RAINFALL NEAR THE
TRACK OF FAY MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN THE INTERIOR AND FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...TROPICAL IMPACT IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PART OF WESTERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     TROPICAL STORM   7 NW BONITA SPRINGS     26.40N 81.88W
08/19/2008                   LEE                FL   C-MAN STATION

            34 KNOT WIND GUST AT BIG CARLOS PASS BRIDGE

0408 AM     TROPICAL STORM   SOUTHWEST INTERNATIONAL 26.54N 81.76W
08/19/2008                   LEE                FL   ASOS

            SOUTHWEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS NEAR FORT MYERS
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH.

0606 AM     TROPICAL STORM   7 NW BONITA SPRINGS     26.40N 81.88W
08/19/2008                   LEE                FL   C-MAN STATION

            BIG CARLOS PASS BRIDGE 34 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUST
            TO 41 KNOTS.

0618 AM     TROPICAL STORM   7 NW BONITA SPRINGS     26.40N 81.88W
08/19/2008                   LEE                FL   C-MAN STATION

            47 KNOT WIND GUST AT BIG CARLOS PASS BRIDGE.

0856 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 SSW FORT MYERS        26.58N 81.87W
08/19/2008                   LEE                FL   ASOS

            34 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND AT FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD /KFMY/.

&&

JILLSON