Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...RELATIVELY STATIC WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER BETWEEN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE OVERALL POSITION WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT IMPORTANT SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL DOMINATE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.  THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEXT TO
NOTHING...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.

AS FAR AS STRONG STORMS ARE CONCERNED...WE COULD SEE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
500 MB TEMP WAS -7C THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO WARM ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO FOR THE WEEKEND. DONT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A BIG
PLAYER...WITH PERHAPS A DIME SIZED REPORT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROBABLY PEA SIZE...IF ANY...OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PERSIST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL
MEAN MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST POPS BASED ON
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. 00Z MEX GUIDANCE HAD FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH READINGS ON THE
UPPER END OF THIS SCALE FOR NOW AS TOO HARD TO GO FOR THE MID 80S IN
THE LONG RANGE FOR THE SUMMERTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE ACTIVE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. STILL EXPECTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 02Z AND
THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO HAZARDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND SEAS RUN 3 FEET OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE PENINSULA WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  90  76 /  40  20  50  20
FMY  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  60  20
GIF  91  74  92  75 /  60  20  60  20
SRQ  90  74  89  75 /  40  20  40  20
BKV  90  71  90  71 /  50  20  50  20
SPG  90  78  90  79 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
516 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MAIN THREAT WILL BE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. MAY SEE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DIGGING TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FLZ039-252045-
LEVY-
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...INCLUDING CHIEFLAND...OTTER CREEK...AND
BRONSON...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FLZ051-252200-
HILLSBOROUGH-
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY INCLUDING INTERSTATE 4...

THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA
VALRICO...PLANT CITY...BRANDON AND SEFFNER...UNTIL 600 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING.

REYNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
551 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FLZ051-252245-
HILLSBOROUGH-
551 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR FROM BRANDON TO SUN CITY
CENTER...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA
INCLUDING PLANT CITY...BRANDON...BOYETTE...TEMPLE TERRACE...RUSKIN
AND SUN CITY CENTER...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING.

REYNES

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