Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 280312
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1012 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
12 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-282300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.080128T1700Z-080128T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1012 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
MONDAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR 4 OR
MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 281339
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
839 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008

..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
12 PM TO 6 PM EST TODAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-282300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0009.080128T1700Z-080128T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
839 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...COOLER DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING OVER
THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RECOVER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS
AND LESS IMPACT ON OUR CWAS WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS ONLY OUR FAR
NORTH ZONES HAVING ANY RISK FOR SHOWERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
WILL STALL NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL GIVE US A WARM DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT FRONT ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF
WILL BEGIN APPROACHING OUR AREA. LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN TIMING OF THE FROPA...MORE INLINE WITH ECMWF. NOW LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY...
THEN STALL OUT OVER TAMPA BAY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
THAT THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA OR PRODUCES ANY
SIGNIF WEATHER FOR US. INSTEAD...LOOKS NOW LIKE A DYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT OUR COASTAL WATERS AND MAYBE
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
BOUNDARIES...THIS ONE LIKELY TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING...AS ANOTHER TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.

IN SUMMARY...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WELL
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...THEN CHANCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PCNT. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH COLD FRONTS HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  BUT GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 35
PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  43  67  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  46  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  42  67  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  68  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  31  66  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  50  66  51  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR LEVY COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60NM
     INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     TO 60NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
429 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
429 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THIS LOW WILL BLOW FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO
20 MPH THIS MORNING...INCREASING THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP
CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN
A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
THOSE SAME WINDS WILL MEAN BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
ALL OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND OVER TAMPA BAY
THROUGH THE MORNING.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS LEVY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL COME DOWN THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
WARRANT ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EITHER LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHARP