Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2008
Red Flag Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this red flag warning at Oct 29, 2008, 1:36 PM EDT for Pinellas County, Sumter County, Florida. It took effect at Oct 30, 2008, 4:03 AM EDT. It was in force for 15 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 29, 2008, 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 30, 2008, 4:03 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 30, 2008, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Counties Pinellas County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1823 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS82 KTBW 291736 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 136 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LONG DURATIONS OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY FOR LEVY COUNTY FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK... AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON... FLZ039-292300- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0053.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ LEVY- 136 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ042-043-048-049-051-052-292300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0053.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- 136 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ON THURSDAY ADDITIONAL LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE..SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ050-055>057-060>062-065-292300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ PINELLAS-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 136 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. SHORTER DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
4 follow-up statements
000 WWUS82 KTBW 292304 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 704 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY FOR LEVY COUNTY FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK... AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON... FLZ039-301115- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ LEVY- 704 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY. A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. $$ FLZ042-043-048-049-051-052-301115- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ /O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0053.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- 704 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ050-055>057-060>062-065-300015- /O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/ PINELLAS-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 704 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 300803 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 403 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER AND HERNANDO COUNTIES FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON... FLZ049-051-052-300915- /O.CAN.KTBW.FW.A.0053.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- 403 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON $$ FLZ042-043-048-302015- /O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0053.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 403 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. $$ FLZ039-302015- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ LEVY- 403 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. HE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. $$
000 WWUS82 KTBW 301311 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 911 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER... HERNANDO...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTEE...AND LEE COUNTIES FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON... FLZ055-060-062-065-302300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 911 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-043-048-302300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 911 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ JCM
000 WWUS82 KTBW 301717 RFWTBW RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 117 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT... ...1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON... FLZ049>051-302300- /O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-081030T2300Z/ PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH- 117 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$ FLZ039-042-043-048-055-060-062-065-302300- /O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0065.000000T0000Z-081030T2300Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 117 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 29, 1:21 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 29, 1:21 PM EDT, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
121 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008
.SYNOPSIS...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT
OUR COLD WEATHER...IS PUSHING NORTH IN EASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. VERY DRY AIR IN UNDER THIS
HIGH...WITH LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...CLEAR SKIES...CALMING...BUT STILL
NORTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNINGS LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTS GET CLOSE TO THEIR LOWS THIS MORNING
AGAIN. THE RECORD LOWS AT TPA...SRQ...AND SPG LOOK SAFE BUT THE
OTHER ONES COULD GO TOMORROW (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
FOR THURSDAY EXPECT THE HIGH TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
AND RIDGE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO
TIGHTEN UP AGAIN WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND WILL HELP TO MODERATE OUR
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY...BUT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH EACH DAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
WILL HELP TO SLOWLY MOISTEN THE COOL DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY...THEN A
CHANCE ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING INTO
MONDAY AS THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASES SOME AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 12Z MEX POPS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING (NOW IN THE 40-50% RANGE) TREND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES BEING DEPICTED IN
THE MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW...WILL BUMP UP POPS INTO THE 30% RANGE ON SUNDAY WITH
LINGERING 20% ON MONDAY.
DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH SLOWLY DECREASING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...SO WILL WILL DEPICT A 20% POP MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH 10%
ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SILENT 10% POP CONTINUING ALL ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THEN RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...A COUPLE OF RECORDS ARE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN
TOMORROW MORNING. THE RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER 30TH ARE BELOW
ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW:
STATION RECORD VALUE FORECAST VALUE
TPA..............41 (1963) 46
FMY..............50 (1953) 48
SPG..............48 (1952) 52
BRADENTON 5 ESE..45 (1952) 46
LAKELAND.........46 (1952) 42
.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...BUT RH VALUES ARE HANGING UP A BIT DOWN SOUTH.
STILL SHOULD SEE A CRASH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH LOW VALUES
MAKING THE 4-HOUR DURATION. AS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE FOCUSED
LOWEST RH VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
DRIEST CONDITIONS THERE. THIS CHANGE COULD MEAN THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE. AS FOR THE
CURRENT WATCH IN PLACE...HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE THAT LEVY COUNTY
WILL BE ABLE TO VERIFY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
BUMP THEM UP TO A WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL LEAVE THE REST OF
THE WATCH AREA AS IS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN
THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP OVER THE WATERS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. MAY HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THEN AND NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 46 75 58 79 / 5 5 5 5
FMY 48 78 59 80 / 5 5 5 5
GIF 45 74 56 77 / 5 5 5 5
SRQ 46 75 57 80 / 5 5 5 5
BKV 34 73 50 77 / 5 5 5 5
SPG 52 74 61 77 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEVY.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM....55/SHARP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAELHazardous weather outlook, Oct 29, 4:23 AM EDT, 9 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 423 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 FLZ039-042-043-048-292030- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO- 423 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...COLD WEATHER IMPACT... PERIODS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST WILL CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST...INCLUDING BROOKSVILLE...UNTIL AROUND 8 AM EDT. EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD WEAR WARM CLOTHING. BRING PETS AND COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS INSIDE IF POSSIBLE. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES WITH OVER 4 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. AVOID STARTING FIRES OUTDOORS...THROWING CIGARETTES OUT THE WINDOW AND ALWAYS SUPERVISE CHILDREN WHEN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ...COLD WEATHER IMPACT... PERIODS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY LATE EVENING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD WEAR WARM CLOTHING. BRING PETS AND COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS INSIDE IF POSSIBLE. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-292030- PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS- SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 423 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH OVER 4 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. AVOID STARTING FIRES OUTDOORS...THROWING CIGARETTES OUT THE WINDOW AND ALWAYS SUPERVISE CHILDREN WHEN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. AR
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 5:04 AM EDT | Fire Weather Watch | TBW | Polk, Sumter | 23 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2008Every red flag warning in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.