Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 142337
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
637 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ALL AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL KEEP A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151130-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0005.080115T1700Z-080115T2200Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
637 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$


JCM

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 151000
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ALL AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-152300-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FW.W.0005.080115T1600Z-080115T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
500 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

$$

PRC

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 152305
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
605 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008


FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-160015-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080115T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
605 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
COME UP ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.


$$

JCM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1032 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL TO UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
COASTAL AND SOUTH. RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RHS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY.
EXPECT NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY
POSSIBLY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ZONES. WILL DECIDE
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER REVIEW OF LATEST MOS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING GENERALLY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OFFSHORE. SEAS
ARE UP TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE SCEC NEAR
SHORE/TAMPA BAY AND SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND
LATER IF REQUIRED. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE
     SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
     MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...24
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
508 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141515-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
508 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT OCCUR TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN
20 AND 60 NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...AND
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...COLD WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.
PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE IN SOME OF THE MORE
PROTECTED AREAS. WHILE LONG DURATIONS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS ALONG THE NATURE
COAST COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS
LATER TODAY.  ALSO...BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

...GULF LOW IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A GALE
CENTER...AND COULD BRING A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS TO OUR REGION THIS
WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
LOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTH ALREADY...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE COAST.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE WILL DRIVE WATER
UP INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THIS WATER WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...RESULTING IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE
NATURE COAST IS THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXTENT OF ANY COASTAL FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON
HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM GETS AND THE TIMING OF THE SURGE WITH
RESPECT TO HIGH TIDE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE
AND WAVE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST. HIGH SURF WILL ALSO OCCUR...
BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO AREA BEACHES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW CROSSES NORTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FEET...AND LIKELY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JILLSON