Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE STATE WILL
GET PUSHED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA PERSISTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SO
A 20% POP WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AREAS
MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POPS 30-40% RANGE) DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY LATE EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 20 POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE CWA WITH MOST
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING BY 06Z. MODEL DATA REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND EXPANDING
WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD
AND KEEPS THE AREA UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO A MORE WEAK EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL DESCEND UPON THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING WITH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE...WHICH REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY...SLOW WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE BUT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP RAIN POTENTIAL VERY LOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHOW
SIGNIFICANT POPS WITH THIS FORECAST SOLUTION AND WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCREASING POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPS
QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. EVEN MORNING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DROP THAT MUCH...WITH
MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES AROUND 5 TO
6SM IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES
FOR A WHILE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AS THEY VEER INTO THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS SUPPORTING HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSE
TO 35% OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT FUSED
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS ONLY SLOW
MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. ON MONDAY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  83  69  82 /   5  10  10  40
FMY  63  87  67  83 /   5  10  10  30
GIF  63  86  67  84 /   5  20  20  40
SRQ  63  84  66  82 /   5  10  10  40
BKV  59  84  59  82 /   5  20  20  40
SPG  68  84  71  82 /   5  10  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JCM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
512 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TODAY. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR COAST
AREAS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CANTIN