Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 201754
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
154 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LEVY COUNTY FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW
35 PERCENT... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH FOR MONDAY.

FLZ043-202200-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080420T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0032.080421T1700Z-080421T2200Z/
SUMTER-
154 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ042-048-202200-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080420T2200Z/
CITRUS-HERNANDO-
154 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ039-202200-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080420T2200Z/
LEVY-
154 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

FLZ052-056-057-061-202200-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0032.080421T1700Z-080421T2200Z/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
154 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND THEN
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL LEAVE 20 POPS FOR THIS AREA.  ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY A RATHER
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHERE THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND NATURE COAST TO LOWER 60S ALONG
THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING TO
THE WEST ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC.
FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE STATE AS A SURFACE
FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.  WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
LOWER LEVELS AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN PLACE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 TO MID 60S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
FROM MID-WEEK ON THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY.  WILL THEREFORE UPGRADE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA.  ON MONDAY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH DURATIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUMTER...POLK...
HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.  TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  63  81  63 /  10   0   5   0
FMY  84  62  84  62 /  10   0   5   0
GIF  84  61  84  61 /  10   0   5   0
SRQ  80  62  80  61 /  10   0   5   0
BKV  82  53  82  53 /  10   0   5   0
SPG  80  67  80  67 /  10   0   5   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC