Coastal Flood Statement 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SARASOTA NORTH...WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THIS
REASON A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
SARASOTA NORTH.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW TIDES TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS MORNING...THEN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...AND 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH.  ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...SO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG GRADIENT MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE U/L SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE REGION.  THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DECREASING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S..  THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...LINGERING MOISTURE AXIS ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH
WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING WEST TO EAST WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS (POPS 20-30% RANGE) FROM
THE BAY AREA SOUTH TO FORT MYERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE DRIER
AIR FURTHER TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 18Z/00Z GFS RUNS APPEARS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN TURN
DEPICT HIGH QPF VALUES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AT THE MOMENT THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE...SO FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LOOKING ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO PULL ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO
KICK THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PENINSULA EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA NORTHEAST COAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT MAIN EFFECTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO DRAW DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS DEEP
LAYERED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION RATHER STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN
CU/STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT CEILING BASES AT OR ABOVE 4KFT
WILL MAINTAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SARASOTA NORTH TO TAMPA AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH TO FORT MYERS AND REGIONAL
SOUTHWEST TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.  DRIER AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  72  56 /   5  60  30  10
FMY  86  69  77  61 /   5  30  40  20
GIF  86  66  74  56 /   5  60  30  10
SRQ  83  67  74  58 /   5  60  30  10
BKV  85  64  73  49 /   5  60  10  10
SPG  82  67  72  61 /   5  60  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
     HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...AND
     SARASOTA COUNTIES.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM FOR SUMTER...
     POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE
     COUNTIES.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM FOR LEVY...
     CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...
     SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES.

.GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE
               RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM THROUGH 4 AM TONIGHT.

               SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE
               SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY FROM 9 AM
               TODAY THROUGH 4 AM TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

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