Tornado Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE BEEN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD IN THE STRONG EASTERLY LOW LAYER FLOW. THE
DRY AIR ALOFT (SEEN ON VAPOR IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL AS THEIR COVERAGE. VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES HAVE RETREATED TO THE NORTHERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CONUS AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
OK-TX BORDER. T.S. FAY WAS CENTERED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND WAS
HAVING NO DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TAKES FAY OFF
THE CENTRAL EAST FL COAST BY WED MORNING. SUBSIDING AIR NORTHWEST
OF FAY (OVER OUR AREA) WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE POP TO BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...EXCEPT FOR OUR NORTH FL ZONES WHERE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POP NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THROWN US YET ANOTHER CURVE BALL AS THEIR LATEST SOLUTIONS TAKE
FAY INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THIS WEEKEND (AS OPPOSED TO A TRACK
ACROSS SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RE-
STRENGTHENING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF FAY SURVIVES HER TREKS
ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TAKES FAY INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MS WHILE THE GFS TAKES FAY SLOWLY INLAND AROUND PANAMA
CITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH EITHER SCENARIO WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN...RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERTISING MUCH OF A WIND THREAT...BUT IF
THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY START DOING THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE BAND EITHER ASSOCIATED WITH FAY OR
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THEN...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT A FEW SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
IF WE SEE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL...IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL HAVE CAUTION LEVELS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES
TONIGHT...THEN A TEMPORARY LULL AS FAY MOVES OFF THE FL EAST
COAST. WE RAMPED UP THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN CASE
THE ECMWF AND/OR GFS ARE CORRECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  71  92  72  90  72 /  30  20  30  30  30
PANAMA CITY  73  91  73  90  74 /  20  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN       70  92  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
ALBANY       70  92  70  90  72 /  30  20  30  20  30
VALDOSTA     70  90  72  89  72 /  30  30  30  30  30
CROSS CITY   71  89  72  88  72 /  30  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
542 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-201000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
542 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 /442 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TALLAHASSEE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
NEAR JACKSONVILLE LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM MAY THEN
MOVE WESTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA GENERATING
GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT WEAKENS. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND ALL
INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

CAMP