Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
725 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 23Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS WE SEE
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA BEGINNING TO
EXIT THE EAST COAST. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO/SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FLOW EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN. AS IT
TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME WE ARE FINDING PERIODIC MCS
BURST ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH ONE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH MISSOURI ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FINALLY EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM WE FIND GENERAL TROUGHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH A FAIRLY POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING
IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA.

CLOSER TO HOME...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA NORTHEAST TO ALBANY AND SOUTH
OF MACON. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AROUND 10 OR 11 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN ACROSS OUR FLORIDA ZONES AS
INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZES INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLY CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...IT WAS A RATHER WARM TO HOT DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MANY INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS/LOCAL SEA-BREEZES BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN. SEA
BREEZE JUST PASSED ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT DROPPING
THE TEMP FROM 96 DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S BUT JUMPING THE DEWPOINT
FROM 61 TO 71 IN ONLY A FEW MINUTES. ONCE THE STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED...EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. VERY WARM AND STICKY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS FAILING TO FALL
OUT OF THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

THE HEAT IS ON ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING
THE MIDDLE 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST A FEW DEGREES LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE BUILDING A BIT FURTHER EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST HELPING TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. STILL LIKELY TO SEE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. WITH THE LACK OF ANY
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
DURING THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
BEST COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE LESS MID-LEVEL SUPPRESSION WILL EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING COULD BRING TEMPO
TSRA TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PFN. ACTIVE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY PAUSING
TOWARD FL AL GA STATE LINE INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOWING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL GA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT BY LATE
EVENING BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPAWN SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY MORNING INLAND TERMINALS. LESS CONVECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR ADVANCES OVER
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  73  95  71  96  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY  76  91  75  90  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
DOTHAN       72  97  73  97  73 /  10  20  10  10   0
ALBANY       72  97  73  96  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
VALDOSTA     70  95  70  96  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY   72  92  69  95  72 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...GOREE
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
438 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-030845-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
438 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008 /338 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. EVEN IF THE STORMS ARE NOT
SEVERE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN BE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

GAZ157-158-030200-
GRADY-THOMAS-
914 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR GRADY AND THOMAS
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

AT 912 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCHLOCKNEE...OR
10 MILES EAST OF CAIRO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THOMASVILLE BY 930 PM EDT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

ALSO...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

14-MROCZKA