Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. A 40-50 KT WSW LOW
LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN AL TO ERN LA WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN GA TO THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG THIS SURFACE
TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID
60F DEW POINTS SURGING NWD INTO SERN AL/ERN FL PANHANDLE). THIS
SQUALL LINE IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD (50-60 KTS)...AND WILL
AFFECT OUR WRN ZONES BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...AND AREAS TO THE EAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE SPC...AND A SVR TSTM
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWFA UNTIL 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BUOY 42039 AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO ADVISORY CRITERION LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE COULD EASILY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS ARE STILL AFFECTING MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING QUICKLY AT
DHN OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...AS THE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH THE AREA WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MARIANNA CRESTED A FEW FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH
THE FLOOD WAVE TRAVELING DOWNSTREAM AND FLOODING ALTHA TODAY AND
LASTING INTO FRIDAY. BLOXHAM SHOULD BE CRESTING TODAY A FEW FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HAVANA HAS CRESTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAL
FLOODING CONTINUES IN SRN LEON COUNTY DUE TO MUNSON SLOUGH DRAINAGE.
TODAYS CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD AT A DECENT CLIP...SO BASIN
AVERAGE QPF SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
RIVERINE FLOODING...SEE THE NWS TALLAHASSEE WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FORECASTS PROVIDED THROUGH OUR LOCAL AHPS
SITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  71  40  53  24  58 /  80  20  00  00  00
PANAMA CITY  70  41  53  35  60 /  90  10  00  00  00
DOTHAN       66  34  51  29  59 /  90  10  00  00  00
ALBANY       68  35  51  28  57 /  90  10  00  00  00
VALDOSTA     72  39  52  28  57 /  80  20  00  00  00
CROSS CITY   77  42  54  27  59 /  80  60  00  00  00

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

FL...LAKE WIND ADVY ALL ZONES 15-23Z TODAY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TODAY TO 7 PM EST WED ALL LEGS.

&&

JAMSKI/GOULD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
548 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-271100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
548 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 /448 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...THE AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO PRODUCE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME...BUT SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE RIGHT MOVERS POSING THE
TORNADO THREAT AND THE LEFT MOVERS A HAIL THREAT. THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND MIDDAY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE EASTERN BIG BEND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...THUS
LIMITING THE IMPACT TO ALREADY SWOLLEN AREA RIVERS. MANY RIVERS
REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
CONSULT LOCAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER
CREST FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS.

WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH TODAY. THIS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS ON AREA LAKES
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID MORNING UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING IN THE
PREFRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW...AND GET EVEN HIGHER AS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FINALLY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZE
DURATIONS OF 6 TO 8 HOURS OVER RURAL INLAND AREAS. IN FACT...A
HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH GEORGIA. COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS WILL
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD. A LIGHT FREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

18-WOOL